Some interesting takes by Nate. For starters, he picks AOC, but my favorite (Mayor Pete) comes in third. Still early days but I think it’s an interesting look into the mood of the country. It extends beyond insider Democratic strategy and speaks to the effectiveness of the communication style of the top three.
> Here were our picks; mine are indicated with a gold star (⭐).
>Gavin Newsom (Galen). Good pick. He’s ahead, or tied with Kamala Harris, in the polls. He’s by far the top choice in prediction markets. That doesn’t mean I have to like it. But I’m seeking to be predictive here (who I think Democrats will pick), not prescriptive (who I’d pick). One thing that hadn’t been as clear to me in April was the emergence of the “Resistance Libs” as a separate faction from the Left and the more wonkish and center-left Abundance Libs. To simplify, because I’ve written about this stuff a lot, the Abundance Libs generally think Democrats should move to the center, and the Left thinks, of course, they should move to the left. Whereas the Resistance Libs claim there isn’t really any positioning problem at all: Democrats just have a “messaging” problem instead. Candidates like Newsom play right into this, selling the idea that Democrats can fight back against Trump by copycatting his ALL CAPS social media presence — even though they’re from the same faction of the party that brought you Harris. Granted, Newsom was smart on redistricting. And nearly any Democrat would seem to stand a fair chance against JD Vance or another Republican nominee; I expect the GOP to have a difficult time of things, post-Trump.
> ⭐ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Nate). Both Galen and I wanted her at #1 last time around. Nothing has really negatively affected my assessment of AOC since then. I suppose she hasn’t achieved liftoff in the polls — but the election of Zohran Mamdani (in case you’re wondering, not eligible to run because he was born in Uganda) speaks to the appeal of this type of message among Democrats. She’s also just an effective communicator: see, for instance, Bernie and AOC on the shutdown and how much more focused their message was than Chuck Schumer’s. Plus, at a time when Democrats have some compelling arguments to make on the concentration of wealth, the left lane is unusually clear because Bernie is 84 years old.2 That said, Democratic elites panicked when it looked like Sanders would win in 2020 and intervened to help Biden; you can imagine that happening again if AOC won an early primary or two. And I suspect there are some Democratic voters who will be scared to select any women candidates after the Harris and Hillary Clinton losses.
>Pete Buttigieg (Clare). Mayor Pete is in an interesting position in that his natural faction is probably the Abundance Libs. But he also has some Resistance Lib appeal by virtue of being an effective and tenacious communicator and a veteran of the Biden administration. He’s also third in the polling average, although his numbers have declined as Newsom’s have risen. (Proof that he’s competing for Resistance votes, I guess.) There’s also the elephant in the room, or actually a pair of them: his persistent lack of support with Black voters, and whether America is ready for a gay president. I had an extended take on that back in September.
JeffJefferson19 on
I like AOC but I’m nervous about selecting a woman after how the last two times went. I think the American people just suck and are too sexist for it still. I think the median voter would pick JD Vance over a woman no matter how much of a disaster the rest of Donny’s term goes
I like Pete but he’s like 6 years into his national political career now and still struggles to get any black people to support him, despite him being one of the more well-known democratic figures.
I don’t really see him ever being a top-of-the-ticket Democrat candidate while that’s the case. And he doesn’t have the kind of raw inspirational charisma that you’d want from a presidential candidate, he’s a great communicator on the podcast circuit and going on Fox News to embarrass right wing talking heads, but there are other roles in a campaign for someone like that.
I see him being a mainstay Dem leader but leading departments or maybe a VP pick, instead of a presidential nominee.
Nitraus on
Why are they at the comedy cellar? Lmao
admiraltarkin on
Clare, Galen and Nate? Is this the old podcast recreated?
6 Comments
Some interesting takes by Nate. For starters, he picks AOC, but my favorite (Mayor Pete) comes in third. Still early days but I think it’s an interesting look into the mood of the country. It extends beyond insider Democratic strategy and speaks to the effectiveness of the communication style of the top three.
> Here were our picks; mine are indicated with a gold star (⭐).
>Gavin Newsom (Galen). Good pick. He’s ahead, or tied with Kamala Harris, in the polls. He’s by far the top choice in prediction markets. That doesn’t mean I have to like it. But I’m seeking to be predictive here (who I think Democrats will pick), not prescriptive (who I’d pick). One thing that hadn’t been as clear to me in April was the emergence of the “Resistance Libs” as a separate faction from the Left and the more wonkish and center-left Abundance Libs. To simplify, because I’ve written about this stuff a lot, the Abundance Libs generally think Democrats should move to the center, and the Left thinks, of course, they should move to the left. Whereas the Resistance Libs claim there isn’t really any positioning problem at all: Democrats just have a “messaging” problem instead. Candidates like Newsom play right into this, selling the idea that Democrats can fight back against Trump by copycatting his ALL CAPS social media presence — even though they’re from the same faction of the party that brought you Harris. Granted, Newsom was smart on redistricting. And nearly any Democrat would seem to stand a fair chance against JD Vance or another Republican nominee; I expect the GOP to have a difficult time of things, post-Trump.
> ⭐ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Nate). Both Galen and I wanted her at #1 last time around. Nothing has really negatively affected my assessment of AOC since then. I suppose she hasn’t achieved liftoff in the polls — but the election of Zohran Mamdani (in case you’re wondering, not eligible to run because he was born in Uganda) speaks to the appeal of this type of message among Democrats. She’s also just an effective communicator: see, for instance, Bernie and AOC on the shutdown and how much more focused their message was than Chuck Schumer’s. Plus, at a time when Democrats have some compelling arguments to make on the concentration of wealth, the left lane is unusually clear because Bernie is 84 years old.2 That said, Democratic elites panicked when it looked like Sanders would win in 2020 and intervened to help Biden; you can imagine that happening again if AOC won an early primary or two. And I suspect there are some Democratic voters who will be scared to select any women candidates after the Harris and Hillary Clinton losses.
>Pete Buttigieg (Clare). Mayor Pete is in an interesting position in that his natural faction is probably the Abundance Libs. But he also has some Resistance Lib appeal by virtue of being an effective and tenacious communicator and a veteran of the Biden administration. He’s also third in the polling average, although his numbers have declined as Newsom’s have risen. (Proof that he’s competing for Resistance votes, I guess.) There’s also the elephant in the room, or actually a pair of them: his persistent lack of support with Black voters, and whether America is ready for a gay president. I had an extended take on that back in September.
I like AOC but I’m nervous about selecting a woman after how the last two times went. I think the American people just suck and are too sexist for it still. I think the median voter would pick JD Vance over a woman no matter how much of a disaster the rest of Donny’s term goes
https://preview.redd.it/e0a8vom6figg1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89419c8cf7f1fd3bb6184366b39839624c9e215c
I like Pete but he’s like 6 years into his national political career now and still struggles to get any black people to support him, despite him being one of the more well-known democratic figures.
I don’t really see him ever being a top-of-the-ticket Democrat candidate while that’s the case. And he doesn’t have the kind of raw inspirational charisma that you’d want from a presidential candidate, he’s a great communicator on the podcast circuit and going on Fox News to embarrass right wing talking heads, but there are other roles in a campaign for someone like that.
I see him being a mainstay Dem leader but leading departments or maybe a VP pick, instead of a presidential nominee.
Why are they at the comedy cellar? Lmao
Clare, Galen and Nate? Is this the old podcast recreated?