The research article [“Relational geographies of urban unsustainability: The entanglement of California’s housing crisis with WUI growth and climate change”](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2310080121) (PNAS July 2024; hasn’t been submitted to this sub yet as far as I can tell) hypothesize a link between the urban housing shortage and housing sprawl into the wildlife-urban interface (WUI) and then connects that to fire risk and spiraling insurance costs, which [jeopardize California’s public finances](https://bsky.app/profile/urbanlandrent.bsky.social/post/3mdxyy64c322j).
Previously, researchers assumed without evidence that sprawl into the WUI was driven by the “pull” factor of interest in being closer to nature, but these researchers (Miriam Greenberg, Hillary Angelo, Elena Losada, and Christopher C. Wilmers) argue that the “push” factor of high urban housing costs is more relevant. They differentiate between “affordability exurbs” and “recreation exurbs.” They then argue that efforts to analyze and remedy the dangers of WUI habitation that ignore California’s urban housing shortage are fatally flawed.
1. Short-sighted land use regulation in California is driving an urban housing crisis, which
2. drives sprawl into the WUI, which
3. is driving an enormous increase in fire hazard risk, which
4. besides endangering public health is also vastly increasing insurance risk, which
5. increases the risk of a state fiscal crisis.
This is just one branch of sequential disasters caused by poor land use regulation but I think enumerating as many as we can is helpful for building a YIMBY consensus from as many perspectives as possible.
!ping usa-ca&yimby&eco
randommathaccount on
Been banging on about this now and then in the DT. Californias exurban sprawl directly contributes to the increasing severity of wildfires. If the exurbs were rewilded and the city centres were dramatically densified, the state could serve to save millions in prevented damages alone (source was a brookings paper, I’ll find it sometime later). In general YIMBYism is a good strategy of climate adaptation in the USA. Even in states prone to flooding, shifting housing towards city centres and rewilding the remaining coastline with mangroves would make a large difference in preventing flooding and damages that result.
2 Comments
# Context
California has experienced a well-documented [urban housing shortage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_housing_shortage) over the past half century, driven by [local regulations](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3700/RRA3743-1/RAND_RRA3743-1.pdf) that increase construction times, restrict multifamily development to certain areas, impose exorbitant and unnecessary fees, and increase labor costs.
California has long experienced expansive wildfires but they’ve been aggravated in recent decades by [climate change](https://specialreports.news.uci.edu/climate-change/the-problem/californias-wildfire-season-has-lengthened.php). Besides the direct human cost ([400 deaths](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx29wjg3vz2o) just in January 2025), this is a [public health threat](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9076366/) via highly toxic wildfire smoke and poses a fiscal risk for the state via public [home insurance](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/09/21/parts-of-america-are-becoming-uninsurable).
# Summary
The research article [“Relational geographies of urban unsustainability: The entanglement of California’s housing crisis with WUI growth and climate change”](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2310080121) (PNAS July 2024; hasn’t been submitted to this sub yet as far as I can tell) hypothesize a link between the urban housing shortage and housing sprawl into the wildlife-urban interface (WUI) and then connects that to fire risk and spiraling insurance costs, which [jeopardize California’s public finances](https://bsky.app/profile/urbanlandrent.bsky.social/post/3mdxyy64c322j).
Previously, researchers assumed without evidence that sprawl into the WUI was driven by the “pull” factor of interest in being closer to nature, but these researchers (Miriam Greenberg, Hillary Angelo, Elena Losada, and Christopher C. Wilmers) argue that the “push” factor of high urban housing costs is more relevant. They differentiate between “affordability exurbs” and “recreation exurbs.” They then argue that efforts to analyze and remedy the dangers of WUI habitation that ignore California’s urban housing shortage are fatally flawed.
# My thoughts
I think this is another mark in favor of [The Housing Theory of Everything](https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/):
1. Short-sighted land use regulation in California is driving an urban housing crisis, which
2. drives sprawl into the WUI, which
3. is driving an enormous increase in fire hazard risk, which
4. besides endangering public health is also vastly increasing insurance risk, which
5. increases the risk of a state fiscal crisis.
This is just one branch of sequential disasters caused by poor land use regulation but I think enumerating as many as we can is helpful for building a YIMBY consensus from as many perspectives as possible.
!ping usa-ca&yimby&eco
Been banging on about this now and then in the DT. Californias exurban sprawl directly contributes to the increasing severity of wildfires. If the exurbs were rewilded and the city centres were dramatically densified, the state could serve to save millions in prevented damages alone (source was a brookings paper, I’ll find it sometime later). In general YIMBYism is a good strategy of climate adaptation in the USA. Even in states prone to flooding, shifting housing towards city centres and rewilding the remaining coastline with mangroves would make a large difference in preventing flooding and damages that result.