Thai voters are coming to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives today. Unlike in the previous election, the 200-member military-appointed upper house no longer has temporary power to participate in a joint session to elect the Prime Minister. This means the candidate who can command a majority will lead the next government, barring challenges to the military-friendly Constitutional Court which are extremely frequent.
There are many pressing issues in this election. The Thai-Cambodian border conflict and a related phone call leak by Cambodian dictator Hun Sen led to the collapse of the coalition led by former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 3rd member of the Shinawatra clan to claim the premiership. The future of Thailand’s democracy in relations to the monarchy, which still has extremely harsh lèse-majesté laws, and the military establishment also loom large, similar to the last election. Perhaps most importantly, the past 20 years of political instability has dented the Thai economy at its critical juncture, with stagnated growth, aging population, rising inequality, and very high household debt compared to peer ASEAN countries.
The leading parties to watch are:
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Bhumjaithai Party: The conservative populist party that pulled out and led to the collapse of the Pheu Thai-led coalition, with itself leading a short-lived coalition after. It favors maintaining Thailand monarchist institutions and laws. It has previously been targeted by the military but since the border clashes has taken a more nationalistic, pro-military stance to capture the patriotic frever
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People’s Party: The liberal opposition with meteoric rise in the last election, surprisingly became the largest party. It opposes the military establishment’s influence over government institutions and advocate to abolish the lèse-majesté laws. It faces many headwinds as the last charismatic leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, is exiled for 10 years by the constitutional court for his position on the monarchy itself. Some also criticize the party for not being supportive enough of the military given the border clashes
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Pheu Thai Party: The populist party controlled by the Shinawatra clan which has been removed from powers by several coups or military-friendly constitutional court rulings. It is expected to suffer heavy losses due to the phone call scandal mentioned above, although it remains to be seen whether other parties can make inroads into its very loyal rural base, cemented by previous populist policies. The party is currently led by the great-nephew of Thaksin Shinwatra, who has effectively been the leader of the clan for the past 26 years.
Results for the election and a vague referendum on rewriting the military-written constitution will slowly trickle in. It is live on https://www.thaipbs.or.th/election69/result/en?tab=summary
Shoutout to u/Al_787 for the great last minute writeup!
Posted by remarkable_ores
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