An interesting analysis by Alameen Najjar, who is a Syrian geospatial data scientist. Goes into a lot of the nuts and bolts of regional, season, and even neighborhood shifts of illumination. A quick read, but one that's worthwhile.
The sudden collapse of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024 marked the end of the central phase of a conflict that left Syria deeply depopulated, physically shattered, and economically hollowed out. The year that followed was consequential, with the appointment of Ahmad al-Sharaa as interim president, the formation of a transitional government, and the eruption of deadly sectarian clashes in the west and the south. It culminated in the repeal of the US Caesar Act in late December 2025.
Although there were signs of recovery in 2025—including indicators consistent with economic growth, the return of more than three million Syrians, and improvements in basic services, reliable economic data remain scarce. A comprehensive assessment of recovery therefore remains difficult. To help address this gap, this article uses satellite-derived nighttime lights (NTL) to provide a neutral, data-driven assessment of Syria’s recovery one year after Assad.
NTL data primarily capture activity powered by formal, grid-connected electricity—such as public lighting, industry, and large commercial facilities—and do not register most off-grid solar or household-level power use. In areas with high solar adoption, such as in northeastern Syria, NTL may therefore understate local economic activity. The results should be interpreted as a proxy for grid-based recovery rather than a comprehensive measure of economic life. Our analysis finds signs of recovery in most major Syrian cities throughout 2025. However, this recovery is geographically fragmented and politically uneven.
Posted by Watchung
2 Comments
Good signs for Al-Sharaa’s government. Hope it can continue as the situation stabilizes further.
>The median city under transitional government control recorded 66 percent more growth (36.2 percent) than the median city under SDF control (21.8 percent). This gap is also visible spatially, with more uniform growth across transitional government-held cities and more fragmented patterns elsewhere.
>Finally, Sweida—the only major city under the control of local Druze factions—remains an outlier, recording a 32 percent decline. Together, these patterns indicate that political authority structures strongly shaped Syria’s recovery in 2025.
Per the article most places are growing (especially Aleppo), for the two that aren’t though Hasakah recently backtracked a tiny bit after growing decently before and Sweida is just dropping off