Russia is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign fighters in the war on Ukraine as its forces sustain more losses than they’re able to replace, UK Defence Secretary John Healey said.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told European counterparts this week that Kyiv was able to inflict more Russian casualties than the Kremlin was able to recruit over the last two months, Healey told Bloomberg News on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

That’s forcing Russia’s military forces to depend more on thousands of foreign fighters, he said, including recruits from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria and Senegal.

They are “often recruited under false pretenses and press-ganged under pressure without necessarily realizing that they’re destined for the Russian meat machine on the front line of Ukraine,” Healey said. He put the number of North Korean troops committed to fighting for Russia at about 17,000.

The Russian and Ukrainian militaries have been largely locked in combat along the 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) front line, with little territory gained since the first year of the nearly four-year war. Russia’s mounting losses challenge a narrative projected by the Kremlin — and at times echoed by US President Donald Trump — that Moscow’s victory is inevitable.

Fedorov has outlined an ambition to drive up Russian losses to 50,000 a month by the summer. Western officials have said that would make it difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to replace troops without resorting to some form of mobilization. That option has proved deeply unpopular — and Putin has avoided avoided any repeat of his 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists, which prompted hundreds of thousands to leave the country and triggered a spike in public discontent with the war.

Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses in Ukraine than it was able to replace in January, Bloomberg reported last week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy cited a figure of 30,000 Russian personnel killed in action in January.

“Putin is not concerned about this now, but there is a level at which he’ll start to care,” the Ukrainian leader said Saturday at the Munich Security Conference.

Russian officials don’t disclose military losses. Putin and his top generals have publicly insisted that fatalities are much smaller than those suffered by Ukraine. A different view has been offered by a number of Russian military bloggers, who have lamented excessive losses, citing Russian commanders ordering troops to storm Ukrainian defensive positions.

Six to 25

Russia likely sustained 415,000 casualties — accounting for those killed and wounded — last year, a slight drop from 430,000 in 2024, according to assessments by Western officials, bringing its total to more than 1.2 million over the course of the war. Casualty rates in December amounted to 1,130 a day and climbed as high as 35,000 for the month, according to the assessments. The higher numbers have been attributed to more successful Ukrainian drone operations.

Still, Russian forces have been able to gain ground on parts of the front line, including in the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Russian forces have also relentlessly carried out missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving swathes of the war-battered country without heating or water in frigid temperatures.

Western officials believe that it’s probable that Russia can sustain its combat operations in Ukraine throughout 2026 as a result of its recruitment campaigns, industrial production and support from other nations like China. Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, told reporters last week that the increased use of drones in combat has widened the area of battle along the front line by as much as 15-20 kilometers.

“This is an important reminder for us all that Ukraine is under huge pressure from Russia, not least their civilians and cities but the front line as well — but they are retaking some territory and some towns,” Healey said. Casualty rates have also grown from around six to as many as 25 Russian losses for each Ukrainian casualty on some parts of the front line, he said.

Western officials believe that trend, helped by the delivery of more drones to Ukraine, is key to increasing pressure on Russia’s campaign. Ukraine has said that while Russia appeared to exceed its goals for military recruitment, the number of its troops on the battlefield has remained the same for six months — pointing to as many as 712,000.

“Putin likes to give the impression that they’re making relentless and inevitable progress but he’s weaker than he’s been and more reliant than he’s been on foreign fighters,” Healey said.