I think it’s too late at this point. Iran isn’t going to give even a symbolic concession and Trump has put too many assets in the region to pull out without looking weak
ImmortalAce8492 on
From the recent leaks (WPost, WSJ, Axios), I’m increasingly convinced there are concerns about whether the stockpile and overall readiness are sufficient for this kind of operation. Even assuming a near-perfect first strike, the best-case scenario seems to be limited, tangible gains rather than decisive resolution.
If the strike fails or only partially succeeds, I could see Iran choosing to simply endure in the short term, both to save face domestically and to draw the U.S. into a more complicated and politically costly position. It would humiliate the US but also make Israel fear an abandonment of supply due to the US’ already dwindling stockpiles. That assessment does not even account for the range of second- and third-order effects that could follow.
If Iran genuinely views this such as existential, I would not rule out a response that is unprecedented in scope or asymmetry. Dare I say the use of a nuclear device. Perhaps that is overly pessimistic, and perhaps it never materializes that way. Still, the feel of the leaks suggests a lack of full confidence in the feasibility of a clean decapitation-style strike.
Maybe this is all a ruse and we genuinely do conduct an impressive showing but man, if this goes south, it’ll be a failure for the books. Trump’s in a pickle of his own making.
BenIsLowInfo on
Given how awful US munitions stocks are and how much Trump hates allies it really seems like Xis best course of action is to go early on Taiwan despite the risks.
Also given how incompetent Hegseth is and the fact that even Caine is highly unqualified to be Chairman
3 Comments
I think it’s too late at this point. Iran isn’t going to give even a symbolic concession and Trump has put too many assets in the region to pull out without looking weak
From the recent leaks (WPost, WSJ, Axios), I’m increasingly convinced there are concerns about whether the stockpile and overall readiness are sufficient for this kind of operation. Even assuming a near-perfect first strike, the best-case scenario seems to be limited, tangible gains rather than decisive resolution.
If the strike fails or only partially succeeds, I could see Iran choosing to simply endure in the short term, both to save face domestically and to draw the U.S. into a more complicated and politically costly position. It would humiliate the US but also make Israel fear an abandonment of supply due to the US’ already dwindling stockpiles. That assessment does not even account for the range of second- and third-order effects that could follow.
If Iran genuinely views this such as existential, I would not rule out a response that is unprecedented in scope or asymmetry. Dare I say the use of a nuclear device. Perhaps that is overly pessimistic, and perhaps it never materializes that way. Still, the feel of the leaks suggests a lack of full confidence in the feasibility of a clean decapitation-style strike.
Maybe this is all a ruse and we genuinely do conduct an impressive showing but man, if this goes south, it’ll be a failure for the books. Trump’s in a pickle of his own making.
Given how awful US munitions stocks are and how much Trump hates allies it really seems like Xis best course of action is to go early on Taiwan despite the risks.
Also given how incompetent Hegseth is and the fact that even Caine is highly unqualified to be Chairman