Four years on, Moscow’s loss of 40,000 soldiers a month may yet force the Kremlin to settle for less

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  1. > “We always said, ‘No, nothing is collapsing’,” says Pyotr Mironenko, co-founder of The Bell, a Russian website run by exiled financial journalists. “But I think we’re closer to that moment.”

    That Russia has been losing the war in Ukraine is becoming more obvious to more and more people. In the past weeks, Ukraine has actually captured over 150 square miles of territory as Russia’s defenders are no longer able to hold out, but the key thing has never been about land. This was always a war of attrition.

    > Unable to launch mechanised assaults, Moscow has turned to so-called “infiltrators”, groups of three or four who sneak through gaps in Ukraine’s porous front line. If they survive long enough, they take cover, call in artillery and air strikes, and guide more troops to their position. But the vast majority do not. While the casualty ratio can hit 25-1, it is usually “13 to 1, 12 to 1”, he says, “and never less than 10”.

    Moscow is desperately hoping for a confused Witkoff to give them a ceasefire soon which would allow them to halt, rebuild their forces and either support China against America, attack Ukraine with greater force or, more likely, attack another American ally elsewhere.

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