This potentially puts 200 urban Labour MPs at high risk to the Greens. Despite the focus on the “Red Wall”, the cities are Labour’s actual base. This puts London (which has 75/650 seats alone), Manchester, Bristol, etc. at high risk of being won by the Greens.
Moreover, this likely enables a Soft Left takeover of the Labour Party which would change government policy and direction dramatically.
upthetruth1 on
It’s really good that Reform were defeated. Congrats to the Greens for winning this constituency.
Unfortunately, this is still 32% right-wing in an urban, diverse constituency with Reform winning 29%. Compared to 25% right-wing in 2019 and 22% right-wing in 2024.
I will wait to see the results in each ward, but I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout was low in Manchester wards, as it historically has been.
We do know nationally that youth turnout and ethnic minority turnout is low in all elections.
Which wards turned out most will tell us a lot about voters in urban, diverse constituencies think about politics.
If turnout was relatively equal across the wards, that’s incredibly concerning that Reform could even get 29% in an urban, diverse constituency, considering this constituency is only 56% white compared to Caerphilly or Runcorn and Helsby which are 97% white and Reform won 36% and 38%, respectively in the recent by-elections.
If turnout was relatively lower in Manchester wards and relatively higher in Tameside, then that means there’s still a lot of potential for Labour and Greens, and they both need to figure out why youth turnout and ethnic minority turnout is low.
Just stunning collapse of one of the oldest political parties in the world. They got into a ditch and dug it deeper themselves by going with Kemi Badenoch. Seriously keeping Sunak would’ve been better.
Sad_Distribution3169 on
This seat is one of the most heartland of labour heartlands, losing here means that pretty much any labour seat could be in play next election.
Expelling the left has clearly been a terrible political strategy which could present an existential election threat for starmer.
lowes18 on
Lots of strategic voting in this race to lock out Reform and it resulted in Labour getting demolished. Frankly they are done as a serious political party in the future if this is where things keep heading.
DkArthasorAnomander on
This is good for bitcoin i think.Â
that0neGuy22 on
Starmer blocking Burnham to avoid a leadership fight while the party is slowly bleeding out. Now get’s a fat L that will lead to more discussions on if he should go
With how large the margin is this could have been a Burnham loss anyway but everyone blames him
mxdSirty on
I traded this election and can give my tldr down below as I had greens winning.
TLDR
You have an area with around 30% Muslim population that feels like it has been abandoned by labour. Because of this reforms ceiling is capped and combine that with CON voters that would never vote reform (yes a real group around 2.5%) and it was really hard for reform to ever have a chance without a voting split between green and labour. Additionally there was no worker party this time which got a solid 10% last time so most of these voters went green as well. Keep in mind this is a seat that had voted labour for 100 years. It’s pretty clear people are mad with labour and that’s why you see flocking to the Green Party. Overall, left wing voters are smart and would consolidate vote to prevent reform from winning, but there was certainly some risk of people not knowing who do consolidate their vote for (labour and green) as polling had them basically tied. I do think this seat is pretty unique because of its Muslim population, but this should be a wake up call for the Labour Party.
DomScribe on
Great that Reform didn’t pull off the upset but I wish the winner didn’t have a leader who wants to weaken NATO and thinks Putin can be appeased in Ukraine.
10 Comments
Submission statement: The Greens have won the Gorton and Denton by-election by a large margin
https://preview.redd.it/m7h2qkqxyylg1.jpeg?width=1482&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1fc1a7d08b4055061facf69934eee1f46764e106
This potentially puts 200 urban Labour MPs at high risk to the Greens. Despite the focus on the “Red Wall”, the cities are Labour’s actual base. This puts London (which has 75/650 seats alone), Manchester, Bristol, etc. at high risk of being won by the Greens.
Moreover, this likely enables a Soft Left takeover of the Labour Party which would change government policy and direction dramatically.
It’s really good that Reform were defeated. Congrats to the Greens for winning this constituency.
Unfortunately, this is still 32% right-wing in an urban, diverse constituency with Reform winning 29%. Compared to 25% right-wing in 2019 and 22% right-wing in 2024.
I will wait to see the results in each ward, but I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout was low in Manchester wards, as it historically has been.
We do know nationally that youth turnout and ethnic minority turnout is low in all elections.
Which wards turned out most will tell us a lot about voters in urban, diverse constituencies think about politics.
If turnout was relatively equal across the wards, that’s incredibly concerning that Reform could even get 29% in an urban, diverse constituency, considering this constituency is only 56% white compared to Caerphilly or Runcorn and Helsby which are 97% white and Reform won 36% and 38%, respectively in the recent by-elections.
If turnout was relatively lower in Manchester wards and relatively higher in Tameside, then that means there’s still a lot of potential for Labour and Greens, and they both need to figure out why youth turnout and ethnic minority turnout is low.
https://preview.redd.it/4hnayerjzylg1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=712514237dcd6a5d1d1ab99e1de8de5fc9cf02dd
The Tory margin lol đź’€
Just stunning collapse of one of the oldest political parties in the world. They got into a ditch and dug it deeper themselves by going with Kemi Badenoch. Seriously keeping Sunak would’ve been better.
This seat is one of the most heartland of labour heartlands, losing here means that pretty much any labour seat could be in play next election.
Expelling the left has clearly been a terrible political strategy which could present an existential election threat for starmer.
Lots of strategic voting in this race to lock out Reform and it resulted in Labour getting demolished. Frankly they are done as a serious political party in the future if this is where things keep heading.
This is good for bitcoin i think.Â
Starmer blocking Burnham to avoid a leadership fight while the party is slowly bleeding out. Now get’s a fat L that will lead to more discussions on if he should go
https://preview.redd.it/spqoufyr1zlg1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d36ef8c9eea4dadf93f366d7a46dbb3c867dddf7
With how large the margin is this could have been a Burnham loss anyway but everyone blames him
I traded this election and can give my tldr down below as I had greens winning.
TLDR
You have an area with around 30% Muslim population that feels like it has been abandoned by labour. Because of this reforms ceiling is capped and combine that with CON voters that would never vote reform (yes a real group around 2.5%) and it was really hard for reform to ever have a chance without a voting split between green and labour. Additionally there was no worker party this time which got a solid 10% last time so most of these voters went green as well. Keep in mind this is a seat that had voted labour for 100 years. It’s pretty clear people are mad with labour and that’s why you see flocking to the Green Party. Overall, left wing voters are smart and would consolidate vote to prevent reform from winning, but there was certainly some risk of people not knowing who do consolidate their vote for (labour and green) as polling had them basically tied. I do think this seat is pretty unique because of its Muslim population, but this should be a wake up call for the Labour Party.
Great that Reform didn’t pull off the upset but I wish the winner didn’t have a leader who wants to weaken NATO and thinks Putin can be appeased in Ukraine.