After Iran, Israel will attack Turkey. This sequence Syria, Iraq, Iran, and then Turkey has long been known. Even now, Israeli politicians are speaking of Turkey as a threat. But how will Israel attempt to sell such a war against a NATO member state to us? And will NATO Article 5 be triggered?
I can imagine that when it comes to Israel, Western states would not intervene on Turkey’s side. An attempt would be made to portray Turkey as the aggressor and to ensure that this war does not appear to have been initiated by Israel.
In recent years, Israel has maintained close cooperation with the Greek part of Cyprus. For those who do not know, the Mediterranean island of Cyprus is divided into two parts: a southern state, primarily governed by a pro-Greek administration, recognized by the EU and the UN; and a northern part, governed by a pro-Turkish administration, recognized only by Turkey and protected militarily by it.
Israel may seek to provoke a conflict here, as this would force Turkey to take action. Greece, Israel, and Cyprus are already cooperating in their activities in the Mediterranean and are building military ties. When the Iran–Israel war escalated in 2025, Israel temporarily stationed its aircraft in southern Cyprus to protect them from Iranian missiles.
If Turkey were to attack southern Cyprus in the context of such a conflict, it would likely be portrayed as the aggressor, and it would be argued that NATO Article 5 does not apply. Turkey could quickly find itself in a conflict with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, and become internationally isolated. That would mark the beginning of a larger war.
Posted by Seximilian
4 Comments
Either that or as a proxy conflict on Syrian soil. But yeah Cyprus eventually be the target
I doubt this will ever happen. That would mean a world war. And Turkey is way too risky for Israel to attack. Just another attempt at fear mongering
Turkey and Israel are secret allies. I don’t think there will be a war between them.
According to some this may not go the way that the U.S. and Israel may have thought. This is going to be a logistics nightmare for the U.S. and Israel.
First the US casualties are higher than being reported. The ports are destroyed. There’s not enough ammo.
Source: Douglas MacGregor Ret. Colonel