SuS: Trump tries to calm the world that oil through Hormuz will flow. He promises the US DFC will insure ships, and escort them though Hormuz with the USN “if necessary” and “as soon as possible”.
LyptusConnoisseur on
Trump, a man known for paying his bills.
fantasmadecallao on
Didn’t they try this in the red sea against a much less equipped adversary (Houthis). This just sounds like a good way to burn through a few years production worth of SM-2s while Maersk remains still too cautious to send ships anywhere near.
Brave-Arachnid-3501 on
I doubt that this will do anything, there’s way too much risk and so going the route around Africa though longer and more costly probably just would give that peace of mind and stability that businesses value the most.
Due_Recognition7675 on
Ahh yes, the long awaited pivot to (west) asia
trombonist_formerly on
This will be maybe ok if the iranians are bluffing about closing the straight
The moment it turns out they aren’t bluffing, these assurances aren’t worth the paper they’re written on
hlary on
Has the US even replenished all the munitions that ultimately got wasted in Yemen (yet another instance of the hawks here being wrong about an intervention btw.)
Xeynon on
Fun fact: in 2002 the US military conducted [Millennium Challenge 2002](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002?wprov=sfla1), a war game that simulated a scenario very similar to this one. The planners had to suspend the exercise after the force representing Iran used asymmetrical tactics to sink SIXTEEN American warships and kill almost 20,000 American sailors in the first few days of the conflict. They then restarted it with the rules basically rigged in the U.S.’ favor to allow it to win. The general who role-played the Iranian commander called the essentially scripted completed exercise “wasted” because it did not provide any useful lessons or prepare American forces for a real version of this conflict.
Realistically, there’s no way you can stop an adversary that has a hundred miles of coastline along a 25 mile wide strait from turning a scenario where a bunch of oil tankers are trying to transit it into a turkey shoot if they’re determined to do so. They have a bunch of big, highly vulnerable, slow moving targets to shoot at and numerous options to hit them with (drones, missiles, naval mines, speed boats rigged with explosives, etc.) – all adding military escorts will do is create more targets.
In other words, Trump is setting us up for a potentially catastrophic defeat that both significantly weakens our force projection capacity in the region and massively escalates the conflict. Good times.
8 Comments
SuS: Trump tries to calm the world that oil through Hormuz will flow. He promises the US DFC will insure ships, and escort them though Hormuz with the USN “if necessary” and “as soon as possible”.
Trump, a man known for paying his bills.
Didn’t they try this in the red sea against a much less equipped adversary (Houthis). This just sounds like a good way to burn through a few years production worth of SM-2s while Maersk remains still too cautious to send ships anywhere near.
I doubt that this will do anything, there’s way too much risk and so going the route around Africa though longer and more costly probably just would give that peace of mind and stability that businesses value the most.
Ahh yes, the long awaited pivot to (west) asia
This will be maybe ok if the iranians are bluffing about closing the straight
The moment it turns out they aren’t bluffing, these assurances aren’t worth the paper they’re written on
Has the US even replenished all the munitions that ultimately got wasted in Yemen (yet another instance of the hawks here being wrong about an intervention btw.)
Fun fact: in 2002 the US military conducted [Millennium Challenge 2002](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002?wprov=sfla1), a war game that simulated a scenario very similar to this one. The planners had to suspend the exercise after the force representing Iran used asymmetrical tactics to sink SIXTEEN American warships and kill almost 20,000 American sailors in the first few days of the conflict. They then restarted it with the rules basically rigged in the U.S.’ favor to allow it to win. The general who role-played the Iranian commander called the essentially scripted completed exercise “wasted” because it did not provide any useful lessons or prepare American forces for a real version of this conflict.
Realistically, there’s no way you can stop an adversary that has a hundred miles of coastline along a 25 mile wide strait from turning a scenario where a bunch of oil tankers are trying to transit it into a turkey shoot if they’re determined to do so. They have a bunch of big, highly vulnerable, slow moving targets to shoot at and numerous options to hit them with (drones, missiles, naval mines, speed boats rigged with explosives, etc.) – all adding military escorts will do is create more targets.
In other words, Trump is setting us up for a potentially catastrophic defeat that both significantly weakens our force projection capacity in the region and massively escalates the conflict. Good times.