Note that the last time a Democrat received more votes than a Republican in a Texan gubernatorial primary was in 2002. There are a myriad of mitigating factors for turnout that go far beyond just what the incumbent party is, but I feel as if that analysis is a can of worms that require its own post, and I don't want to miss the forest for the trees. Greg Abbott's first term was in 2015, Ted Cruz's first term was in 2012, and John Cornyn's first term is 2002.
There's a variety of explanations for why Democratic turnout may have surpassed that of the Republicans, but it should be noted that turnout for both parties reached all time highs for both of these respective races, so a depression in turnout is certainly not one of them, and on top of this, both senate primaries this year were particularly contentious.
I'd never be one to believe in Blexas, as the last time I did believe in it, Donald Trump carried the state by 14 percent; I do believe, however, that this is a signal of a strong reversion amongst Latino voters, with Republican turnout buoyed by a rift within the GOP that will ultimately lead to a fracture, that may come to haunt them come November. Democrats may see the same blowback depending on how Crockett handles her loss, but it would appear that Talarico's immense popularity in the Rio Grande Valley and other areas Trump carried / flipped in 2024 indicate that he may be able to push margins with Latinos and weaponize general dissatisfaction with the Trump regime to push Texas slightly over the edge.
Only time will tell, however, and the results of the GOP primary runoff will help elucidate what path the state will take.
Posted by herworkthrowaway
3 Comments
Who won the general in 2008?
Ngl this gives me immense hopium. But on the other hand, Ken Paxton becoming a senator would make Joseph McCarthy look like the most upstanding elected official ever. He’s the prime symbol of the justice system just cease to function.
This is a bigger deal than when it happened in 2008 because there were many conservative voters in 2008 that voted in the Democratic primary, but voted McCain and Cornyn in the general.
Also, 2008 had insane levels of turnout in the Democratic primary because Clinton and Obama were in a neck-and-neck race. In contrast, McCain faced little to no competition by the time Texas had their primary. However, both parties have competitive primaries this year.