Submission statement: Relevant to geopolitics and relations in East Asia.
2027 has been a topic of discussion in the Asia-Pacific for quite a few years by now as a potential moment for when China might invade. I’ve always said that I don’t really buy the idea of 2027 as part of some fixed timeline, and so I agree with this assessment.
!ping CHINA
Whole_Zebra6068 on
I was in the Navy, and that background caused me to be very paranoid and hawkish about China when I was younger
But in recent years I have truly tried to understand the Chinese perspective
I have come to believe that the Chinese people don’t really want war. They want Taiwan, but both the people and government prefer a peaceful solution. The status quo is quite desirable
They are getting rich, and a war would ruin that
Energia__ on
I do think this is the single largest factor behind Trump’s adventure in Iran.
attackofthetominator on
Well now you jinxed it
JeffJefferson19 on
China could simply democratize and then Taiwan would be more interested in joining
scndnvnbrkfst on
Me when strategic surprise 😯
SteveFoerster on
These are the same assessors who thought Iran wouldn’t fight back?
morgisboard on
Before or after?
Bayley78 on
Im convinced that when Xi decides that something must be done about Taiwan it’ll be a blockade that forces a US response. If the US blinks its a massive win for the regime, if the us does anything it’ll be without American support and guarantee Chinese national approval. Very low risk high reward.
As others have said the economic growth is a priority and will remain a priority until
1 us or taiwan does something stupid
2 an economic collapse or depression necessitates a move
I wouldn’t put it past trump to declare Taiwan an independent country until china agrees to a trade deal. See no 1.
9 Comments
Submission statement: Relevant to geopolitics and relations in East Asia.
2027 has been a topic of discussion in the Asia-Pacific for quite a few years by now as a potential moment for when China might invade. I’ve always said that I don’t really buy the idea of 2027 as part of some fixed timeline, and so I agree with this assessment.
!ping CHINA
I was in the Navy, and that background caused me to be very paranoid and hawkish about China when I was younger
But in recent years I have truly tried to understand the Chinese perspective
I have come to believe that the Chinese people don’t really want war. They want Taiwan, but both the people and government prefer a peaceful solution. The status quo is quite desirable
They are getting rich, and a war would ruin that
I do think this is the single largest factor behind Trump’s adventure in Iran.
Well now you jinxed it
China could simply democratize and then Taiwan would be more interested in joining
Me when strategic surprise 😯
These are the same assessors who thought Iran wouldn’t fight back?
Before or after?
Im convinced that when Xi decides that something must be done about Taiwan it’ll be a blockade that forces a US response. If the US blinks its a massive win for the regime, if the us does anything it’ll be without American support and guarantee Chinese national approval. Very low risk high reward.
As others have said the economic growth is a priority and will remain a priority until
1 us or taiwan does something stupid
2 an economic collapse or depression necessitates a move
I wouldn’t put it past trump to declare Taiwan an independent country until china agrees to a trade deal. See no 1.