I think the 2026-2027 timeline has always been stupid, because it’s based on the West’s perception of when China’s capability would be most favorable, not how China sees itself. CCP ideologues certainly don’t think it’s gonna peak any time soon.
sleepyrivertroll on
Yeah China isn’t the type of nation that just randomly starts a war without preparation or planning. That would be incredibly stupid
rukqoa on
This is the same assessment they’ve been making for a few years.
> The PLA probably is making steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter—and, if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention. At times, it has increased the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan.
> The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification. However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
> Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
They are trying to gain the capability to be able to militarily take over Taiwan. They will try to achieve the goal without military invasion, if possible. And if not, they insist on doing it by military means by 2049.
The next milestone here would be a classified US assessment that China CAN possibly invade Taiwan if the US doesn’t intervene, which I think 2027 is the approximate timeline.
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!ping china&taiwan
I think the 2026-2027 timeline has always been stupid, because it’s based on the West’s perception of when China’s capability would be most favorable, not how China sees itself. CCP ideologues certainly don’t think it’s gonna peak any time soon.
Yeah China isn’t the type of nation that just randomly starts a war without preparation or planning. That would be incredibly stupid
This is the same assessment they’ve been making for a few years.
> The PLA probably is making steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter—and, if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention. At times, it has increased the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan.
> The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification. However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
> Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
They are trying to gain the capability to be able to militarily take over Taiwan. They will try to achieve the goal without military invasion, if possible. And if not, they insist on doing it by military means by 2049.
The next milestone here would be a classified US assessment that China CAN possibly invade Taiwan if the US doesn’t intervene, which I think 2027 is the approximate timeline.