Some hopium for a change. Lakshya Jain discusses some recent US polling in The Argument. It's looking brutal for Republicans and Trump. Some quotes:
"What do you get when you cross a cost-of-living crisis with an unpopular war and tariff policies from the 1930s?
For Donald Trump, the answer is “a disaster.”
The public opinion landscape on the economy resembles an apocalyptic wasteland for the Republican Party. Driven by immense economic dissatisfaction from a public crying out for lower costs, Donald Trump’s approval ratings are plumbing all-time lows in our latest survey of national registered voters at The Argument.
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Trump’s numbers on the economy are radioactive. Every major demographic group of voters disapproves of his economic stewardship, including supermajorities of young and nonwhite voters. He’s even underwater on this issue with white, non-college voters, a group he won in 2024 by more than 20 percentage points.
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What’s more, the loss of trust the Republican Party has experienced on the economy has been nothing short of staggering. In fact, in our latest survey, Democrats actually had a slight edge when it came to the economy, which marked a shocking reversal from the 14-point edge Republicans enjoyed during the Biden years.
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Make no mistake about it — a D+9 environment would be apocalyptically bad for Republicans. In fact, it would be one of the bluest downballot environments of the last 30 years, eclipsing the 2006 and 2018 blue waves in magnitude.
At that level, the House flipping blue is virtually a foregone conclusion, and the Senate — which requires Democrats to win at least two states that Trump won by double digits — becomes a potentially blue-tilting toss-up, thanks to a combination of an exceedingly blue environment and an excellent set of swing-state recruits.
What’s worse for Republicans is that it may not stop here. If the economy continues to worsen, as voters expect, then there is no reason that voter perceptions of Trump cannot continue to decline.
Moreover, we know that opposition parties generally tend to gain as election day nears. Given the combination of these two factors, Democratic gains may continue, especially if Trump continues an unpopular war in Iran that has already spooked investors and created a rift in the Republican coalition.
Barring an external “black swan” event, a Democratic landslide in 2026 has never looked more likely than it looks today. If it happens, the president will have nobody but himself to blame. Because voters were extremely clear that they wanted lower prices, and to date, every single action from this administration has done the exact opposite of what they wanted.
So let me ask again, this time to President Trump: What do you get when you cross a cost-of-living crisis, an unpopular war, and tariff policies from the 1930s?
You get exactly what you deserve."
TL;DR: It's the economy, stupid.
Posted by loremipsumot