In this submission, Dan Schwarz authored this article in *Asterisk Magazine* on private corporate prediction markets. Prophit, one such market at Google, relied on a leadboard and some cash rewards to incentivize employees to submit forecasts on metrics Google cared about. These included,
>How many Gmail users will there be by the end of Q2?
Will Apple launch a computer based on Intel’s Power PC chip?
The resultant forecasts were quite accurate and modified decision-making within the company. However, this market would later be killed due to limitations within Google.
1 Comment
**Submission statement:**
There have been a [sequence](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1rva9pk/no_more_prediction_market_oddsposting_please/) [of](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1s4g1gz/we_havent_seen_the_worst_of_what_gambling_and/) [posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1rvaoky/gamblers_trying_to_win_a_bet_on_polymarket_are/) discussing prediction markets and their flaws in r/neoliberal recently. These were all valid criticisms of public monetary-based prediction markets. However, there are more interesting and less harmful variants that I think commentators here might find interesting.
In this submission, Dan Schwarz authored this article in *Asterisk Magazine* on private corporate prediction markets. Prophit, one such market at Google, relied on a leadboard and some cash rewards to incentivize employees to submit forecasts on metrics Google cared about. These included,
>How many Gmail users will there be by the end of Q2?
Will Apple launch a computer based on Intel’s Power PC chip?
The resultant forecasts were quite accurate and modified decision-making within the company. However, this market would later be killed due to limitations within Google.
There are also [some much more interesting](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq?open=false#%C2%A7what-are-some-clever-uses-for-prediction-markets), albiet speculative, usages of prediction markets. I find the idea of using forecasting skill, as tested by non-monetary prediction markets, as an expertise anchor for fields such as political science particularly intriguing.
**Edit**: Clarity