Vladimir Putin is not politically trapped by the war in Ukraine, argues Mariya Omelicheva in War on the Rocks. She contends that authoritarian regimes rarely collapse from battlefield setbacks alone, and Russia’s system is designed to withstand military strain. Sanctions and isolation have deepened elite dependence on the Kremlin, while repression and information control limit mass unrest. The war therefore does not need to end in victory for the regime to survive. Western strategy, she concludes, should assume durability rather than imminent collapse.
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Vladimir Putin is not politically trapped by the war in Ukraine, argues Mariya Omelicheva in War on the Rocks. She contends that authoritarian regimes rarely collapse from battlefield setbacks alone, and Russia’s system is designed to withstand military strain. Sanctions and isolation have deepened elite dependence on the Kremlin, while repression and information control limit mass unrest. The war therefore does not need to end in victory for the regime to survive. Western strategy, she concludes, should assume durability rather than imminent collapse.
Who’s Victor?