Nuclear brinkmanship usually works. It’s also incredibly dangerous.
Trump's "escalate to deescalate" strategy seems to have either worked or given him cover for backing down, but we should still see nuclear threats as unacceptably dangerous.
We have no idea if it “worked” lol. Prima facie it looks like he just gave into all of Iran’s demands. Man people and their sanewashing
Negative_Scarcity315 on
> Even though we have pulled back from the brink — a two-week ceasefire was announced 90 minutes before the deadline
Iran had announced the 10-point ceasefire plan *days before* the civilization-ending threat.
Trump had the choice to
(1) not take the deal and NOT carry on with the threat, which would make him look like a weak barking dog,
(2) not take the deal and carry with the threat, which would make him a self-confessed war criminal or
(3) take the deal proposed by Iran days earlier and pretend it was an entirely new plan and pretend his threats have been effective and he is a great negotiator.
Maximilianne on
Mind you if you believe nuclear brinkmanship works,then in a china-taiwan conflict if they seize Taiwan, China could declare the nuclear option over Taiwan and thus the hot war will end, and presumably we will transition to a cold war
DiscussionJohnThread on
> Trump’s … strategy
As much as I’d like there to be one, it is literally up to the whims of whatever he thinks of in the moment and who’s last in his ear.
The NYT article breaking down how the war even began showed that it was literally just an hour-long presentation from Netanyahu that convinced him to even do this, all advisors saying the regime won’t collapse be damned.
Now, the war swings back and forth in whatever mood he feels like, half influenced by the markets and oil prices, half influenced by his early signs of dementia.
There is no strategy. Stop rationalizing him.
wabawanga on
How was that cover for backing down? Itnmade his backing down look so much worse and so much more obvious. False premise.
5 Comments
We have no idea if it “worked” lol. Prima facie it looks like he just gave into all of Iran’s demands. Man people and their sanewashing
> Even though we have pulled back from the brink — a two-week ceasefire was announced 90 minutes before the deadline
Iran had announced the 10-point ceasefire plan *days before* the civilization-ending threat.
Trump had the choice to
(1) not take the deal and NOT carry on with the threat, which would make him look like a weak barking dog,
(2) not take the deal and carry with the threat, which would make him a self-confessed war criminal or
(3) take the deal proposed by Iran days earlier and pretend it was an entirely new plan and pretend his threats have been effective and he is a great negotiator.
Mind you if you believe nuclear brinkmanship works,then in a china-taiwan conflict if they seize Taiwan, China could declare the nuclear option over Taiwan and thus the hot war will end, and presumably we will transition to a cold war
> Trump’s … strategy
As much as I’d like there to be one, it is literally up to the whims of whatever he thinks of in the moment and who’s last in his ear.
The NYT article breaking down how the war even began showed that it was literally just an hour-long presentation from Netanyahu that convinced him to even do this, all advisors saying the regime won’t collapse be damned.
Now, the war swings back and forth in whatever mood he feels like, half influenced by the markets and oil prices, half influenced by his early signs of dementia.
There is no strategy. Stop rationalizing him.
How was that cover for backing down? Itnmade his backing down look so much worse and so much more obvious. False premise.