Original text: https://archive.fo/UP6SN
Jens Spahn’s resignation comes at a sensitive time for the Chancellor. However, it also opens up unexpected opportunities for Merz.
A change of personnel—especially an involuntary one—inevitably spells turmoil for any government: bad press, distracting side issues, and a loss of expertise. The search for successors consumes time and emotional energy—resources that the country and the party will subsequently lack elsewhere. If the Chancellor had hoped for a quiet summer recess, those hopes have likely been dashed for the time being. For Friedrich Merz, the debacle means he must set about finding a suitable successor for Spahn—and quickly.
Jens Spahn’s withdrawal comes at a fragile moment for the coalition. As parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag, Spahn was the key figure in the Union’s power structure below the level of the Chancellery. Elections are due in three federal states in just a few weeks, and while the coalition has agreed on major reforms, it is far from having translated them all into legislation. Consequently, many compromises—including unpopular ones—still need to pass through the Bundestag. It is the job of the parliamentary group leader—a role Spahn held—to ensure the necessary majorities are secured. It is no easy task; it requires a certain level of standing among the MPs. Any disruption in this position therefore carries the potential for new chaos.
Spahn had fought to keep his post for another three days after the glaring contradiction came to light between his personal conduct—using surrogacy in the US to build his own family—and his party’s official stance—a vehement vote against legalizing surrogacy in Germany. Ultimately, his efforts were in vain. He resigned on Saturday. It marks the provisional end of a career that began over 20 years ago, when Spahn entered the Bundestag as an ambitious young MP with high aspirations. He had once aimed to lead the CDU and, five years ago, even sounded out his chances of becoming Chancellor. All of that is now, for the time being, over.
Several candidates are being discussed as potential successors.
Speculation regarding Spahn’s potential successor is already underway. As is customary, the decision on the Union’s parliamentary group leader is coordinated with the CSU leader—though the final say clearly rests with the Chancellor. Thorsten Frei, currently Head of the Chancellery, is considered the natural first choice. He knows the parliamentary group well from his years as its Chief Whip, is popular among his colleagues, and is regarded as absolutely loyal to the CDU leader.
Alexander Dobrindt of the CSU is also considered capable of handling the role. Like Frei, Dobrindt has a reputation for maintaining good connections with the SPD as well as the Greens. As Interior Minister, he would possess the necessary experience and authority to ensure smooth operations in a Bundestag characterized by narrow majorities—the coalition holds a majority of just twelve votes. This would effectively be a prerequisite for the job, given the constant possibility that small, organized interest groups from both the left and the right—much like the "Junge Gruppe" during the pension dispute—might seek to reopen the reform agenda regarding long-term care, pensions, or taxes.
It is rather unlikely, though not out of the question, that Merz will entrust the leadership of the parliamentary group to his close associate Carsten Linnemann, currently the CDU’s Secretary-General.
It is striking that all the potential candidates being discussed publicly share three things in common: they are men, they are considered relatively conservative—even within the Union—and a follow-up question immediately springs to mind regarding all three: namely, who would replace them in turn? Their respective appointments as parliamentary group leader would necessitate finding a successor for the Chief of Staff, the Interior Minister, or the Secretary-General.
If Thorsten Frei were indeed to move to the parliamentary group, Günter Krings could be considered a potential new Head of the Chancellery; his name is also circulating. The chairman of the influential North Rhine-Westphalia state group in the Bundestag is known primarily to insiders, having twice unsuccessfully sought a seat on the Federal Constitutional Court and failed in his bid—backed by the Chancellor—to chair the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
The Union is thinly staffed.
His lack of high-profile status highlights, once again, the broader problem illustrated by the Spahn case and the issue of his successor: the Union is thin on personnel. It certainly does not have a second Interior Minister of Dobrindt’s stature waiting in the wings. Nor does it have a liberal woman—perhaps from the East—who could step in to succeed Spahn.
Appointing Spahn as parliamentary group leader was considered a risky move from the start. In 2022, irregularities regarding a real estate loan came to light; earlier, during the coronavirus pandemic, Spahn had—as Health Minister—procured face masks at inflated prices against expert advice. Most recently, Spahn faced criticism for attending a series of events hosted by US billionaire and Trump supporter Peter Thiel on five separate occasions.
A successor to Spahn might be more likely to reach compromises.
Consequently, the moment one steps outside the CDU milieu, Spahn acts like a red rag to a bull for many voters and fellow politicians alike. Acknowledging this does not mean agreeing with his critics. Yet hardly anyone in the Union faces as much opposition as the man from the Münsterland region. Spahn frequently ranks low in popularity polls. Criticism of him has also become harsh within other parties—most recently and notably among the Greens. The leader of the Young Socialists (Jusos) gloats on Instagram about Spahn’s resignation, raising a beer in a toast to the camera. All in all, Spahn has hardly been an asset to the Union of late.
At a time when opening channels is more important than closing them, Merz now has an unexpected opportunity to shift the focus during the second half of the legislative term by appointing a new parliamentary group leader.
It remains unclear whether or how Merz has already settled the succession internally. The Chancellor is scheduled to appear in a televised summer interview on ZDF this evening. He is unlikely to announce the new parliamentary group leader there. Yet Merz might well recall his predecessor at the Chancellery, Olaf Scholz, who—shortly after the outbreak of war in Ukraine—had to find a replacement for his notoriously unpopular Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht; lo and behold, he recruited Boris Pistorius, who has since become the country's most popular politician.
Text translated by Google Translate, all mistakes are my own.
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