The Federal Reserve has revised its indexes of industrial production, capacity, and utilization using benchmark data.
Posted by Dumbass1171
The Federal Reserve has revised its indexes of industrial production, capacity, and utilization using benchmark data.
Posted by Dumbass1171
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!ping ECON
The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The most prominent features of the revision are the incorporation of comprehensive annual production data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 Economic Census (EC), a conversion of the industry-group indexes to the 2022 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), a conversion of the product-group indexes used for benchmarking many of the series to the 2022 North American Product Classification System (NAPCS), and the integration of survey utilization rate data for 2024.[[1]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm#FnR_1)
**On net, the revisions to total IP for recent years are negative. The cumulative effect of these revisions leaves the level of total IP in August 2025 roughly equal to its level from February 2020,** whereas IP was previously estimated to have increased 2.2 percent over that period. The largest revision to annual rates of change is in 2022, where the rate of change is revised down by 1.7 percentage points, while the revisions before 2022 are roughly offsetting on net.[[2]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm#FnR_2) After 2022, annual rates of change are revised up by 0.1 percentage point in 2023 and down by 0.7 percentage point in 2024.
**The revisions to capacity growth for recent years are also negative; from 2022 through 2025, capacity growth is revised down in each year, with an average revision of 0.4 percentage point.** The revisions from 2018 through 2021 are generally positive and average 0.1 percentage point per year. The cumulative effect of these downward revisions implies that capacity growth now averages 1.1 percent per year after 2021, revised down from 1.5 percent per year, and remains below the long-run historical average (1972–2024) of 1.9 percent.
TL;DR – Everything is worse than we predicted.