And since people will inevitably bring up the Senate – Nate Silver says D+7 is enough to flip the Senate with these candidates: Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, James Talarico in Texas, and Mary Peltola in Alaska.
Posted by beanyboi23
7 Comments
Yes, you read that right – Nate Silver considers Alaska a target Senate seat with Peltola as the candidate.
He’s unsure whether Platner or Mills is the preferable candidate for Maine, but with Alaska it wouldn’t be needed for the majority.
This could be even better if we consider dems having high propensity voters, which already saved their ass in 2022
The trend only got worse for Republicans
I think +5 is an undercount as well.
We need the Senate so bad. They’re the only thing not gerrymandered with President. We might not ever control congress again.
I’m amazed it’s not higher than 2018 already.
For Maine, I have a feeling nationalization of Senate races has finally come for Susan Collins. Maine is blue state with a red streak in its 2nd district, and 2020 was her closest election since her first one in 1996. In between she was winning by double digits to the point of landslides even in years where GOP got whipped nationally.
Could she pull off one more upset, I wouldn’t underestimate her, I’m not saying she’s destined to lose. Maine Democrats do seem to insist on fucking up by having the choice be a geriatric who would be 79 going into office or a guy with a very problematic backstory. But the national environment and partisanship is shaping up to be the hardest re-election campaign for Collins.
I also believe the midterm will be a point or two higher than 2018, the anger is way more palpable, the Dems’s performance in 2025 eclipsing 2017 results. No way it doesn’t subside as Miller uses Trump to push hateful bigotry
But can we survive another year? That is the question