i dont know a single thing about venezuela, but if trump is against maduro, then im now polarized in favour of maduro. i dont support MAGA imperialism.
where do neolibs stand on maduro? is he bad enough to warrant regime change?
randommathaccount on
An interesting read from cfr that details a roadmap by which the US can change Venezuela without needing invasion (that I realise I flaired wrong oops, this should be an opinion article). It notes how the history of dialogue with Venezuela has managed to make changes when the US took an active role in the efforts instead of being a backstage supporter. I particularly agree with the point made at the end that the Venezuela of today will be less receptive to sanctions relief than we might think as Maduro has held on for so long with extreme sanctions placed on the country. Instead I think a more effective threat would be to his own quality of life rather than those of his people. Will the Trump admin do any of this? No there’s not a chance. But we can hopefully use it to better understand a roadmap to a free Venezuela that need not be bought in blood.
jogarz on
I hate to be the pessimist, but the author of this brief largely avoids engaging with the tricky topic of how to ensure compliance from the Maduro regime with any negotiated settlement. The author themself notes that the United States helped negotiate a deal in 2022-2023 where the US would remove sanctions in return for the regime allowing free elections, only for the regime to violate the agreement when it became clear they had no chance of winning said elections. The reimposition of sanctions was an insufficient deterrent to prevent this.
But then, what would the right deterrent be? The author doesn’t seem to address this. A military threat might be sufficient deterrent, but if that’s a bluff, Maduro will try to call it.
And that’s exactly what’s happening. Right now Maduro and Trump are playing a game of chicken. Both are trying to convince the other that yes, they actually are willing to go to war in order to get there way. It’s unclear whether either of them are telling the truth, but even if they’re both lying (which is a good possibility), there’s still a chance war could happen anyway through miscalculation: two raging narcissists being so confident their opponent will swerve away that they crash into each other.
3 Comments
i dont know a single thing about venezuela, but if trump is against maduro, then im now polarized in favour of maduro. i dont support MAGA imperialism.
where do neolibs stand on maduro? is he bad enough to warrant regime change?
An interesting read from cfr that details a roadmap by which the US can change Venezuela without needing invasion (that I realise I flaired wrong oops, this should be an opinion article). It notes how the history of dialogue with Venezuela has managed to make changes when the US took an active role in the efforts instead of being a backstage supporter. I particularly agree with the point made at the end that the Venezuela of today will be less receptive to sanctions relief than we might think as Maduro has held on for so long with extreme sanctions placed on the country. Instead I think a more effective threat would be to his own quality of life rather than those of his people. Will the Trump admin do any of this? No there’s not a chance. But we can hopefully use it to better understand a roadmap to a free Venezuela that need not be bought in blood.
I hate to be the pessimist, but the author of this brief largely avoids engaging with the tricky topic of how to ensure compliance from the Maduro regime with any negotiated settlement. The author themself notes that the United States helped negotiate a deal in 2022-2023 where the US would remove sanctions in return for the regime allowing free elections, only for the regime to violate the agreement when it became clear they had no chance of winning said elections. The reimposition of sanctions was an insufficient deterrent to prevent this.
But then, what would the right deterrent be? The author doesn’t seem to address this. A military threat might be sufficient deterrent, but if that’s a bluff, Maduro will try to call it.
And that’s exactly what’s happening. Right now Maduro and Trump are playing a game of chicken. Both are trying to convince the other that yes, they actually are willing to go to war in order to get there way. It’s unclear whether either of them are telling the truth, but even if they’re both lying (which is a good possibility), there’s still a chance war could happen anyway through miscalculation: two raging narcissists being so confident their opponent will swerve away that they crash into each other.