Below is a graph I made of pretty much all instrumental climate sensitivity estimate studies of the last 25 years and most of them are much less than the estimate from the IPCC.

https://chipstero7.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-40.png

Climate sensitivity refers to how much the Earth’s average temperature will eventually increase in response to a specific rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels. More precisely, it measures the long-term change in global temperature resulting from a doubling of CO₂ concentration compared to preindustrial levels. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) describes the long-term temperature increase that would occur after the climate system fully adjusts — when oceans, atmosphere, and land have reached a new balance — following that CO₂ doubling. It includes not just the direct warming from greenhouse gases but also feedback effects, such as changes in water vapour, clouds, and ice cover. The IPCC estimates place ECS at about 3°C. Above is a graph of instrumental ECS estimates (ECS estimates from things like satellites, radiometers, spectrometers, and ground-based stations) and we can see that there really is no consensus. Assuming we take the average of the studies listed above, and use the IPCC’s logarthmic CO₂ equation with the Stefan-Boltzmann law, we can calculate that each 1ppmv of CO₂ released into the atmosphere would give a ECS temperature-rise of 0.006°C.

Posted by -Joel-Snape-

1 Comment

  1. Longjumping-Ad7463 on

    We’re already around 1.5 degrees C.  James Hansen has some interesting predictions.

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