
It looks increasingly certain that there was some sort of secret deal between the Trump Administration and now-interim President Delcy Rodríguez that led to Maduro's forced ouster. It's known that she & her brother held private meetings with Trump officials and she offered herself as an alternative to Maduro. This means there's 2 different possible deals.
The optimistic scenario is that Delcy promised Trump that if they remove Maduro, she would, in return for amnesty and/or a wealthy exile, either transition power to the opposition (who won the 2024 election) or she would hold verifiably, relatively free & fair elections this year (Venezuela must have an election within 180 days) in which Machado or Edmundo will almost certainly win. It wouldn't be the first time in history where there were non-rigged elections under dictatorships which led to ouster of the authoritarian leader (Pinochet in 1988 and Ortega in 1990) & a transition to democracy. In this scenario, Delcy leads a temporary government and Venezuela transitions to democracy later this year (or next).
The pessimistic scenario is that Delcy promised Trump that if they remove Maduro, she would rule Venezuela as somewhat of a puppet state to the US. The dictatorship survives with a new face but with the same core power structures (with purges of the Chavista hardliners). In return for being allowed to rule, Delcy agrees to cut ties with Cuba & Iran, grant US companies exclusive control over Venezuela's natural resources, send all the oil & gold North, accept deportees at a rapid pace and cut all ties to drug trafficking. MAYBE she releases political prisoners if Marco actually pushes. In this scenario both the pro-democracy opposition and the anti-imperialist hardliners get thrown under the bus.
Posted by riderfan3728
3 Comments
Chavistas and Trumpists beware: there is no honor among thieves
Is there any reason to not just assume it’s #2?
Option #1 is what’s gonna happen. We learned from Bremer’s mistakes.