Europe, Don’t Back Down! (Francis Fukuyama)

Audio narration of the article by Francis Fukuyama

Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced that he would be imposing a 10 percent tariff from February 1 on the eight European countries that had agreed to send forces to Greenland. He also announced that the tariffs would increase to 25 percent by June 1 if they did not agree to support the sale of the island to the United States. Over the past couple of months, there has been a debate over whether Trump is serious about claiming Greenland for himself, or just trolling the Europeans. He is indeed deadly serious.

As an American, I have one thing to say to my many European friends: Do not back down in this confrontation. Up to now, both the EU and the major European powers have sought to appease Trump by offering him concessions, flattery, personal gifts, and other forms of tribute. This strategy has not worked and should be abandoned immediately.

Donald Trump is fundamentally a bully who wants to dominate everyone around him. Trying to placate him with concessions is a fool’s errand: he despises weakness and those who display it. Last spring, the EU cut a trade deal with him that accepted a 15 percent tariff on all European goods with no retaliation against American products. This was a bad decision; the EU (which in terms of population and wealth is on a par with the United States) should have taken a common position and retaliated.

What makes any European think that conceding Greenland will mollify Trump? He will simply come back for more, later.

The arguments that Europeans have used for a conciliatory policy are that they are still dependent on the United States for security, and need its help in dealing with Russia. They also argue that they don’t want to provoke a mutually destructive trade war.

But at this point, Trump’s America has amply demonstrated that it will not be a reliable ally when push comes to shove. It has already abandoned Ukraine, and stated in November’s National Security Strategy that Europe has fallen behind the Western Hemisphere in terms of American priorities.

Europeans should keep in mind that those countries that stood up to Trump’s threats in 2025, which include China, India, and Brazil, all did well and did not have to succumb. Domestic support for their leaders increased, and in China’s case the United States became much more cooperative.

Europeans have to remember that Donald Trump is not the United States. A majority of Americans are dismayed and outraged by his policies, and will likely vote against him and the Republican Party in the coming midterm elections. It may be the case that the world will have to risk suffering a global recession as more countries stand up to Trump and retaliate against his policies. But a U.S. politician who wants to weaponize trade and use it as a lever for territorial expansion needs to be taught a painful lesson.