• The boundary between forecasting future events, gambling on them, and influencing them is becoming increasingly blurred
• In a data-driven world where everything is quantified, and a world where everyone is looking to make a quick buck, prediction markets provide an opportunity for everyone to “put there money where their mouth is”
• Normalization of gambling in media and culture is accelerating, with nearly every event being wagered upon (and the second order prop bets placed on those wagers)
• This also called into question the use of insider knowledge (like suspiciously well-timed bets placed on the capture of Maduro)
• Betting doesn’t happen in a vacuum however, and prediction markets can be manipulated – wagering on an outcome influences the odds of the outcome.
Yeah but the 21st Amendment says we’re not gonna do anything about it
TeaSharp3154 on
It has been demonstrated that intermittent reinforcement (that is, rewarding an action only some of the time) is a much stronger way of encouraging a behavior (stronger dopamine release) than constant reinforcement; this is true even of rodents. Gambling fundamentally exploits this decision making quirk that is inherent in our brain, as well as exploiting our poor probabilistic thinking.
Almost any ancient culture across the world has put some restriction on gambling, because it is such a powerful and destructive behavior.
I’d argue that impulsive gambling isn’t a character flaw but a pathology, the same way that impulsive behaviors or substance abuse is. In fact we do see increased risk of impulsive behavior including gambling amongst neurodegenerative diseases that affect the dopaminergic system, like Parkinson’s disease (especially those undergoing dopamine agonist therapy) and Schizophrenia.
Meanwhile in the span of 2-3 years we have made it more accessible than any time in human history, in a world where it is easier to spend money than ever.
IMO we not only need to regulate it better, but also study it as a pathology, the same way we study alcohol or drug use.
Resident_Sneasel on
If you’re silly enough to keep gambling money on something that can be fixed then eventually the insiders will wind up with all that extra money you decided you didn’t need.
6 Comments
Is there a poly market on this?
**Article Summary:**
• The boundary between forecasting future events, gambling on them, and influencing them is becoming increasingly blurred
• In a data-driven world where everything is quantified, and a world where everyone is looking to make a quick buck, prediction markets provide an opportunity for everyone to “put there money where their mouth is”
• Normalization of gambling in media and culture is accelerating, with nearly every event being wagered upon (and the second order prop bets placed on those wagers)
• This also called into question the use of insider knowledge (like suspiciously well-timed bets placed on the capture of Maduro)
• Betting doesn’t happen in a vacuum however, and prediction markets can be manipulated – wagering on an outcome influences the odds of the outcome.
https://preview.redd.it/wnvz6wzwnceg1.jpeg?width=428&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39151fa001b5db687c8056e2802abee3b0d94c99
Yeah but the 21st Amendment says we’re not gonna do anything about it
It has been demonstrated that intermittent reinforcement (that is, rewarding an action only some of the time) is a much stronger way of encouraging a behavior (stronger dopamine release) than constant reinforcement; this is true even of rodents. Gambling fundamentally exploits this decision making quirk that is inherent in our brain, as well as exploiting our poor probabilistic thinking.
Almost any ancient culture across the world has put some restriction on gambling, because it is such a powerful and destructive behavior.
I’d argue that impulsive gambling isn’t a character flaw but a pathology, the same way that impulsive behaviors or substance abuse is. In fact we do see increased risk of impulsive behavior including gambling amongst neurodegenerative diseases that affect the dopaminergic system, like Parkinson’s disease (especially those undergoing dopamine agonist therapy) and Schizophrenia.
Meanwhile in the span of 2-3 years we have made it more accessible than any time in human history, in a world where it is easier to spend money than ever.
IMO we not only need to regulate it better, but also study it as a pathology, the same way we study alcohol or drug use.
If you’re silly enough to keep gambling money on something that can be fixed then eventually the insiders will wind up with all that extra money you decided you didn’t need.