Last week, the forecasters said LDP was on track to reach majority alone (232,seats), and combined with their new coalition partner Ishin, they'd win "absolute stable majority (261 seats)
But this week, FNN and Asahi's forecast says LDP is on track to win even more seats, and combined with Ishin it mean the coalition could win 300+ seats, close to 310 needed for supermajority(2/3 of all seats) to override House of Councilor opposition.
But this grow only benefit LDP, forecasted number of seats for Ishin remain similar to previous election.
On the other hand, DPFP which is not part of coalition but often agree with them, is also forecasted to earn similar number of seats as before. But it's actually a decline, simce last time in 2024 their popularity exploded so much that they received excess votes beyond their candidate list and must concede seats to other parties
Meanwhile, the Centrist Reform Party that's the combination of the main opposition party CDP and the former LDP coalition partner Komeito, is on track to lost half of their seats, they got 172 before the election but is now forecasted to have only 2-digit, and is struggling in many electoral districts (Despite many electoral districts saw LDP competing against other conservative-leaning parties)
Sanseito is expected to earn ~10 seats, which is a lot more than what they had from last House of Representative election in 2024, but is much less than what they could have earned if they were to have the popularity of the level of 2025 House of Councilor election.
Emerging party Team Mirai, which want to transform the country using technology and is the only party in this election to oppose tax cut, is expected to earn multiple seats in the election
Communist Party might see reducee seat count too, and the leftist populous party Reiwa Shinsengumi is also on track to lost seats. The coalition of Tax Cut Japan and Yuugoku Rengo consisting of (If I recalled correctly) 5 defectee from Sanseito and CDP, is also expected to lost seats.
There are still ~20% voters who declare themselves as undecided in term of who to vote for
List of opinion polls done on the past weekends:
FNN: https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/995808
Asahi: https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASV212VHMV21UZPS002M.html
Posted by qunow
3 Comments
submission statement: If this is how the election next week will pay out then it can’t be anynore clear that Takaichi have the backing of Japanese pubkic. I personally think would affect not only domestic politics between parties, but also consolidate supports for her within LDP, and to signal to countries like China that their tactics on the current Japanese government isn’t working.
!ping elections&japan
Is this enough for constitutional reforms?
Turns out all the LDP needed to do was to go back to the right lol.