India’s reliance on Russian oil has surged since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, now accounting for roughly a third of its imports, up from 2% in early 2022. President Trump announced that India has agreed to halt Russian purchases, shifting instead to U.S. and possibly Venezuelan oil, as part of a broader effort to pressure Russia economically. Analysts warn in the WSJ that replacing Russian crude with U.S. imports is costly, slower to transport, and technically challenging for Indian refineries accustomed to heavy, sour crudes. Venezuela could partially fill the gap, but its output is insufficient to meet India’s demand. A sudden cut-off could also strain India-Russia relations, making a rapid disengagement unlikely in practice, argues the WSJ.
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India’s reliance on Russian oil has surged since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, now accounting for roughly a third of its imports, up from 2% in early 2022. President Trump announced that India has agreed to halt Russian purchases, shifting instead to U.S. and possibly Venezuelan oil, as part of a broader effort to pressure Russia economically. Analysts warn in the WSJ that replacing Russian crude with U.S. imports is costly, slower to transport, and technically challenging for Indian refineries accustomed to heavy, sour crudes. Venezuela could partially fill the gap, but its output is insufficient to meet India’s demand. A sudden cut-off could also strain India-Russia relations, making a rapid disengagement unlikely in practice, argues the WSJ.