Carney, Ford discussed idea of an early federal election to secure majority, sources say

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford have discussed the possibility of an early federal election in casual conversations about the importance of a majority mandate to deal with uncertain economic times, according to three sources.

The sources said the Progressive Conservative Premier, who has forged a close relationship with the Liberal Leader, offered his opinion that the country needs economic stability.

One of the sources familiar with the discussions said Mr. Ford told Mr. Carney that an election is an opportunity to win a clear majority mandate. But the source stressed that Mr. Ford’s comments should not be seen as an endorsement of the federal Liberals, who are currently two seats shy of a majority.

Mr. Carney has previously said publicly that he is not considering a snap election, and his office repeated that assertion on Sunday.

“We are not going to the polls, as the Prime Minister has clearly said in his media availability,” his spokesperson Audrey Champoux told The Globe and Mail, referring to Jan. 26 comments from Mr. Carney in which he said he was “focused on results for Canadians.”

Mr. Ford’s office declined to comment.

The conversations between the Prime Minister and Mr. Ford underscore how close the two leaders have become, despite their different party affiliations, as Mr. Ford pushes for federal policies to help his province weather the trade war with the U.S., and as Mr. Carney casts himself as a unifier in the face of American aggression.

That relationship could be especially important for Mr. Carney, whose party fell short of a majority last year in large part because it failed to make significant gains in populous suburban ridings in the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding regions in Southern Ontario.

The conversations happened on several occasions, both in-person and over the phone, including at the first ministers meeting in Ottawa on Jan. 29, the source said.

Another of these sources said the Premier recounted to them that Mr. Ford had advised Mr. Carney to trigger an election. Mr. Ford won a third majority government after he called an early election last year, saying he needed a mandate to take on U.S. President Donald Trump.

The first source said the two leaders have also discussed their respective poll numbers, including those that show Mr. Carney is much farther ahead in personal popularity than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

A separate source, who was a participant at the first ministers meeting, said there was a lot of joking around among the Prime Minister and premiers over federal polling numbers. The source said there was also a good deal of speculation among the premiers about an early election.

The Globe and Mail is not naming the sources as they are not authorized to speak publicly about private discussions.

The federal Conservatives are worried that the Liberals will call an early election to take advantage of Mr. Carney’s popularity and Canadians’ deep dislike of Mr. Trump. The next federal election will be held no later than 2029.

Polls show Mr. Carney with leads of as much as 29 per cent over Mr. Poilievre as preferred prime minister. The Liberals hold a lead of between four and nine percentage points over the Conservatives in various polls.

“Anyone with a trained eye could see the Liberals have been openly salivating over the prospects of an entirely manufactured, opportunistic snap election,” Conservative MP Michelle Rempel-Gardner said in an interview Sunday. “Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau both managed to make a minority Parliament work. Why can’t Carney? Lord knows Canadian workers need results as opposed to the instability of two elections in the span of a year.”

A Conservative source said the party is moving on early nominations and some MPs are even looking at renting campaign offices for a possible spring election. The Globe is not naming the source, who was not authorized to discuss internal party affairs.

Mr. Poilievre, who won a resounding 87.4 per cent in the party’s leadership vote at last weekend’s Conservative convention, has become more open to co-operation with Mr. Carney’s Liberals. He has offered to work with the government to pass legislation, such as a tougher bail reform bill.

The Prime Minister will, at minimum, need to call two by-elections, because of the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and the appointment of former defence minister Bill Blair as High Commissioner to the United Kingdom.

Two Conservatives crossed the floor to the Liberal benches in the fall and another Conservative MP has announced he will resign in the spring.

The Liberals would likely need a convincing reason to go to the polls, since the most recent election, which took place last year on April 28. It would be more difficult to blame the Conservatives for an early election call when they have become more co-operative in Parliament.

“The appetite for Carney to call a snap election has everything to do with political storm clouds on the horizon and the political psychology of the moment,” said pollster Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research. “He likely views the minority status in the House as a risky distraction from his efforts to remake and reshape the Canadian economy.”

Mr. Nanos said the most likely rationale for an early election is the ostensible need for a strong mandate to deal with the Trump administration in coming negotiations on the United States-Mexico-Canada free-trade pact.

“It would not surprise me if the Liberals seize on something said by U.S. President Trump to justify an election and ask for a strong mandate to respond the White House,“ Mr. Nanos said.