What we know (and don’t) about One Nation’s rapid rise in the polls
I thought non-Australians might be interested in the (apparent) surge in support for Australia's right-wing populist party, Pauline Hanson's One Nation.
Pauline Hanson and One Nation first exploded onto the scene in the 1998 Queensland state election, where her unapologetic racism and populism attracted 23% primary vote and 11 seats mostly at the expense of the unpopular centre-right LNP government.
However, massive scandals and infighting rocked One Nation over the coming years. Turns out filling your ranks with reactionary racists might not give the highest quality leadership. Pauline Hanson herself was convicted of electoral fraud and served time in prison in 2003 (though this was later overturned on appeal). Since then One Nation has languished in relative obscurity.
So with recent polling showing a surge to 20%+ national support for One Nation again… what’s happening?
Short answer is that the federal Liberal-National coalition has suffered its own spectacular implosion following last year’s thrashing in the federal election. The traditional Liberal centre-right voters HATED then-leader Peter Dutton and his lurch to the populist right, and the moderate Liberals in particular took a beating in their traditional urban/suburban seats.
The moderate wing of the Liberals took heavy losses, and leader Sussan Ley has proven unable to hold the party or coalition together against her colleagues who seem more interested in pandering to the hard-right than rebuilding the party’s reputation in the cities. The Coalition split twice, begrudgingly reformed twice, and Sussan Ley has been knifed by Angus Taylor. The chaos, especially in the wake of the Bondi massacre, has led to conservative voters expressing their disgust via One Nation.
In other words… the surge of One Nation, while following the trend of international right-wing populism, is primarily a conservative protest vote at the clusterfuck that is the Coalition.
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Firstly some context.
Pauline Hanson and One Nation first exploded onto the scene in the 1998 Queensland state election, where her unapologetic racism and populism attracted 23% primary vote and 11 seats mostly at the expense of the unpopular centre-right LNP government.
However, massive scandals and infighting rocked One Nation over the coming years. Turns out filling your ranks with reactionary racists might not give the highest quality leadership. Pauline Hanson herself was convicted of electoral fraud and served time in prison in 2003 (though this was later overturned on appeal). Since then One Nation has languished in relative obscurity.
So with recent polling showing a surge to 20%+ national support for One Nation again… what’s happening?
Short answer is that the federal Liberal-National coalition has suffered its own spectacular implosion following last year’s thrashing in the federal election. The traditional Liberal centre-right voters HATED then-leader Peter Dutton and his lurch to the populist right, and the moderate Liberals in particular took a beating in their traditional urban/suburban seats.
The moderate wing of the Liberals took heavy losses, and leader Sussan Ley has proven unable to hold the party or coalition together against her colleagues who seem more interested in pandering to the hard-right than rebuilding the party’s reputation in the cities. The Coalition split twice, begrudgingly reformed twice, and Sussan Ley has been knifed by Angus Taylor. The chaos, especially in the wake of the Bondi massacre, has led to conservative voters expressing their disgust via One Nation.
In other words… the surge of One Nation, while following the trend of international right-wing populism, is primarily a conservative protest vote at the clusterfuck that is the Coalition.