Philip Shetler-Jones warns that the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran highlights the fragility of global trade, particularly maritime supply chains. He argues that a war over Taiwan could trigger economic shocks comparable to those from the Persian Gulf conflict, given East Asia’s central role in global shipping and industrial production. With China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounting for over a quarter of global GDP, disruptions in shipping lanes would ripple worldwide. Past assumptions that naval escorts could mitigate such crises are insufficient; collective resilience and better public-private coordination are essential to prevent or manage the fallout from a regional conflict.
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Philip Shetler-Jones warns that the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran highlights the fragility of global trade, particularly maritime supply chains. He argues that a war over Taiwan could trigger economic shocks comparable to those from the Persian Gulf conflict, given East Asia’s central role in global shipping and industrial production. With China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounting for over a quarter of global GDP, disruptions in shipping lanes would ripple worldwide. Past assumptions that naval escorts could mitigate such crises are insufficient; collective resilience and better public-private coordination are essential to prevent or manage the fallout from a regional conflict.