Submission statement: Betting markets capture the real-time electoral impact of recent developments better than any other method. The war with Iran is creating economic and geopolitical effects that are bouncing back to domestic politics here at home. Democrats had a 40% chance to take the Senate compared to Republicans’ 60% chance before the beginning of the war – now Democrats have pulled ahead in the odds.
SelesnyaGOAT on
THE STOVE TOUCHING MUST CONTINUE. THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY DEPENDS ON IT
Who knew a short “Special Combat Operation” to boost popularity for midterm would turn into a bloody swamp ?
Or does he truly believe American electorate don’t matter because he is American Yoon and plan to storm election office & congress with paratroopers to nullify midterm.
atierney14 on
No offense OP, although you posted it as a meme, so I think you’re good, but I get pissed when people post these seriously like they’re indicators of anything, rather than just a sad reminder of how deeply routed gambling addiction is in our society – hopefully that doesn’t sound too Jaden Smith.
Idk, this sub is about worms though.
sigh2828 on
Betting markets have been proven time and time and time again to be influenced by insiders, the whole thing is rigged and should be ignored as any kind of legitimate predictive mechanism.
They can be and are regularly, manipulated.
While dems definitely have an uperhand right now, i would beg everyone to please not use predictive markets as any kind of legitimate source.
DudleyFluffles on
I have some dislike for betting markets that rely on real-world money.[1] So I prefer repuation-based systems like Metaculus. There doesn’t seem to be much of a difference in performance beteween their forms. Here are their equivalent odds:
Its unfortunate that the Republicans are still so likely to retain the Senate. I’m feeling as though the Democratic is somehow failing to seize the moment, leaving gaps for populists such as Mamdani to rise. I am not sure why this is the case (I have learned that I do not understand why people vote for the things they do). Hopefully, something positive changes.
I saw this meme that was like, “prediction markets will replace food delivery in the next 3 years. I will simply place a bet that someone won’t deliver me kiwis at $15. If I don’t get my kiwis, I make money. If I do, I get my delivery. The market will then sort out the rest.”
I guess my point it that prediction markets are silly
7 Comments
Submission statement: Betting markets capture the real-time electoral impact of recent developments better than any other method. The war with Iran is creating economic and geopolitical effects that are bouncing back to domestic politics here at home. Democrats had a 40% chance to take the Senate compared to Republicans’ 60% chance before the beginning of the war – now Democrats have pulled ahead in the odds.
THE STOVE TOUCHING MUST CONTINUE. THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY DEPENDS ON IT
https://preview.redd.it/eyzp078chepg1.jpeg?width=1081&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b3c53a8d66abe91e419ad13de7c3bf0db98b9db8
Who knew a short “Special Combat Operation” to boost popularity for midterm would turn into a bloody swamp ?
Or does he truly believe American electorate don’t matter because he is American Yoon and plan to storm election office & congress with paratroopers to nullify midterm.
No offense OP, although you posted it as a meme, so I think you’re good, but I get pissed when people post these seriously like they’re indicators of anything, rather than just a sad reminder of how deeply routed gambling addiction is in our society – hopefully that doesn’t sound too Jaden Smith.
Idk, this sub is about worms though.
Betting markets have been proven time and time and time again to be influenced by insiders, the whole thing is rigged and should be ignored as any kind of legitimate predictive mechanism.
They can be and are regularly, manipulated.
While dems definitely have an uperhand right now, i would beg everyone to please not use predictive markets as any kind of legitimate source.
I have some dislike for betting markets that rely on real-world money.[1] So I prefer repuation-based systems like Metaculus. There doesn’t seem to be much of a difference in performance beteween their forms. Here are their equivalent odds:
https://preview.redd.it/6ucon5jpgepg1.png?width=846&format=png&auto=webp&s=78eb6090d98c029bc9c3a7982c2bdda9b4e3cb4a
Its unfortunate that the Republicans are still so likely to retain the Senate. I’m feeling as though the Democratic is somehow failing to seize the moment, leaving gaps for populists such as Mamdani to rise. I am not sure why this is the case (I have learned that I do not understand why people vote for the things they do). Hopefully, something positive changes.
[1]: My reasoning aligns mostly with Richard Ngo’s reasoning [in case study five](https://substack.com/@richardngo/p-190543622#Prediction%20markets).
I saw this meme that was like, “prediction markets will replace food delivery in the next 3 years. I will simply place a bet that someone won’t deliver me kiwis at $15. If I don’t get my kiwis, I make money. If I do, I get my delivery. The market will then sort out the rest.”
I guess my point it that prediction markets are silly