Do you think this could lead to further deescalation after brutal years of fighting? I am skeptical but try to be cautiously optimistic.
Posted by Rodriguez_Salamanca
Do you think this could lead to further deescalation after brutal years of fighting? I am skeptical but try to be cautiously optimistic.
Posted by Rodriguez_Salamanca
2 Comments
an extended ceasefire only favors russia.
best case it turns into another frozen conflict – a giant transnistria situation.
any ceasefire that doesn’t require the withdrawal of russia troops to pre-2022 (ideally pre-2014, but that’s not happening) positions is a win for russia.
worst case (and the most likely) is that they’ll use any extended ceasefire to get sanctions relief, refill their coffers off of oil/gas money, rearm and reman, and try again in 5 or 10 years.
Any ceasefire without security guarantees is useless