Rule 10 Submission Statement: Why aren't more people talking about the fact that Iran essentially has a shielded pipeline for trade and resupply, with Russia, through the Caspian Sea?
I see a lot people talking about the impact that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might be having on Iran's economy; as well as how fertilizer, helium, and other important global trading commodities are being stalled through the crisis in the strait. It would seem as though we are supposed to believe that the Strait of Hormuz is their only lever of economics, but that's not true…they can trade with Russia to the north. Additionally, Russia can resupply them with air defense artillery, munitions, and other weapons; as well as transport dual-use technology from China.
Iran is capable of manufacturing their own drones, in underground missile cities, however they do import critical components from China. Russia and China have rail lines that directly link them. Which means that Chinese dual-use technology can be loaded onto trains, shipped to Russian ports, and then sailed to Iranian ports, completely bypassing NATO or US chokepoints.
The Caspian Sea is completely surrounded by countries that would be of no help to the United States, if the US wanted to forcibly disrupt this pipeline. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran all have strategic ties with Russia and Turkmenistan is officially designated as permanently neutral (recognized by the United Nations); meaning that all of these countries would deny use of their airspace to the United States and any overflight by jets, missiles, or drones, would be considered an act of aggression, for violating sovereign air space, and risk direct war with Russia.
The US Navy has zero presence in the Caspian Sea; nor do they have a way to establish a presence there without sailing through the Volga River, which is completely controlled by Russia. Russia would never allow the United States Navy access through the Volga-Don Canal.
This critical detail appears to have been in the United States' blindspot, and got overlooked, during what limited war planning went into the February 28th 2026 attacks on Iran. Unless it wasn't. Unless the objective is to draw the war out…not for weeks, but months, or longer.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is going to wreak havoc on the global economy. But with this trade route, Iran can stay in the fight longer than most might assume. Ensuring that the war can go as long as it's supposed to.
Posted by yellowjackethokie
4 Comments
Nobody has forgotten the Caspian Sea. People are reporting the straight of Hormuz because that’s what affects them the most.
They’re not reporting that Iran can be resupplied via other routes because a) that’s really obvious if you have ever seen a map of the area or know any history of the area at all, and b) the US and Israel started the war which means it lasts as long as they keep attacking, it’s not like they’re sending troops to occupy it.
Also of interest is that Russia is planning to build a new canal (the Eurasia canal) connecting the Caspian to Rostov. With Kazakhstan’s upgraded railway connecting port aktau on the Caspian to khorgos in China the Caspian is likely soon going to be a very important trade route. It might explain a lot about the war in Ukraine too as goods from Rostov can continue up the dniper to Poland once all the hydroelectric dams are blown up and proper locks built on the dniper.
That is a one huge lake.
They bombed a number of the ports already, not sure how damaged they are.