Bamako siege: Islamists block entry to Mali’s capital city

Submission statement: A grim update on the security situation in Mali, five days after rebels from the jihadist coalition JNIM, affiliated to Al-Qaeda, and the Tuareg separatists of the FLA, launched an unprecedented offensive on several major cities in Mali.

On Saturday, April 25, Malian rebels mounted the largest offensive in more than a decade when they attacked six cities held by the military junta and their Russian allies: Kidal, the northernmost provincial capital, was conquered by the FLA who negotiated a withdrawal of the Africa Corps out of the city; Gao, another northern city, saw its defenses overwhelmed by rebels before they withdrew from the city streets; Mopti and Sévaré, in the central Inner Niger Delta, were partially conquered by jihadists until they withdrew; Bamako, the capital, was struck by multiple attacks, including an assault on its airport; Kati, the HQ of the junta in the suburbs of Bamako, was attacked by several commandos who killed the Defense Minister Sadio Camara (number 2 of the junta) and grievously wounded Modibo Koné, head of the intelligence services (number 3 of the junta).

Five days later, the junta is still reeling from the offensive, having lost a provincial capital and several key sites around major cities, confronted with a "betrayal" from the Russian mercenaries, who reportedly negotiated their exit from Kidal with the rebels before the offensive.

On Tuesday, April 28, JNIM announced a "total siege" of Bamako, warning civilians not to travel to the capital city, in a sharp escalation of the blockade they had enforced since September on fuel convoys, many of which were burned down in hit-and-run attacks along major roads. Reporting on the ground suggests that 3 out of 6 major roads in and out of Bamako are now under control of the jihadists, throttling the flow of fuel, goods and people in this landlocked country.

The Group of Support to Islam and Muslims, known by its Arabic acronym JNIM, is an affiliate of Al-Qaeda and is the fastest-growing terrorist organization in the world. Growing out of their Tuareg/Fulani base in northern and central Mali, they have significantly expanded their territorial control and revenue sources since the military coups in the Sahel, and now operate a proto-state comprising large parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and northern Togo and Benin, levying taxes, rendering justice and enforcing a strict interpretation of sharia law.

Recent reports show that JNIM is looking to emulate Ahmed Al-Sharaa's model of governance by making overtures to other opposition groups, like the Tuareg separatists of the FLA, or the Coalition of the Forces for the Republic (CFR) of the conservative imam Mahmoud Dicko, suggesting that JNIM may seek to push for a negotiated regime change away from the military junta to transform Mali into an Islamic Republic, rather than a frontal military conquest.