June 2026 US CPI release: overall prices decreased 0.4% MoM, increased 3.5% YoY

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The headline index had increased 0.5% MoM, 4.2% YoY the prior month, in May.

Consensus forecast was for -0.1% MoM, 3.8% YoY, so actual figures surprised significantly lower.

Core CPI (all items less food and energy) remained unchanged (0.0%) MoM, up 2.6% YoY in June, compared with 0.2% MoM, 2.9% YoY the month prior, in May.

Consensus forecast for core CPI was +0.2% MoM, 2.8% YoY, so actual figures for core CPI also surprised low.

FRED graph of YoY change in headline and core CPI.

FRED graph of MoM change in headline and core CPI.