“No candidate will be allowed to ignore the debt’s hard math” – An open letter from 4 economists to the Budget Office

Submission statement

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This is about economics, natinol debt and elections in France

!ping FRANCE

*Four economists who submitted a report on the state of public finances to the government on Wednesday note in an op-ed in *Le Monde* that stabilizing the debt in the long term will require an adjustment of 125 billion euros before the end of the next five-year term.*

For a long time, France benefited from exceptional circumstances that masked the gradual deterioration of its public financial situation. **The steady decline in interest rates, the European Central Bank’s highly accommodative monetary policy—which it combined with large-scale purchases of government debt securities—the “peace dividend,” which helped keep military spending in check, and the temporary suspension of European fiscal discipline rules all served as buffers**. Unfortunately, that period is over.

Yet, in public debate, people still often act as if these favorable conditions were still in place. This is a mistake; the facts are clear. With a public deficit exceeding 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, France ranks among the countries with the highest deficits in the European Union. **Above all, this deficit is no longer merely a reflection of difficult economic conditions; it has become structural.** It fuels a debt that grows year after year, gradually increasing our financing costs and reducing our room for maneuver. The real danger is no longer so much the current level of debt as **its inertia**.

Furthermore, healthcare spending is rising due to an aging population and medical innovation. **Pension expenditures continue to increase**. A new development is that military spending is growing along a now firmly established trajectory, as set forth in the planned budget. None of these trends is bad in itself; all reflect collective choices or profound demographic shifts. **However, taken together, they will push the deficit to nearly 7% of GDP by 2030 and the debt to around 130% of GDP.**

# Limited Space for Maneuver

It is precisely because this drift is largely spontaneous that it must be made visible. And the problem will persist—whether we like it or not—until the end of the next five-year term. In many areas, policymakers have indicators that allow them to distinguish between underlying trends and the results of new decisions. Public finances deserve the same transparency. A “no-policy-change” trajectory is not a political program: it provides an objective benchmark for assessing the actual efforts made by successive governments.

The task ahead for the country is considerable. Achieving long-term debt stabilization would require an adjustment of approximately 125 billion euros before the end of the next five-year term—the equivalent of twice the national education budget. The [2027] presidential election will not be able to ignore this unpleasant budgetary arithmetic. No single measure alone can produce such a result. It is an illusion to imagine that targeting a few categories of taxpayers, a few tax loopholes, or a few symbolic savings would suffice. Conversely, believing that future growth will spontaneously solve the problem would be just as dangerous. The question, therefore, is no longer one of choosing between spending, revenue, or growth. All three must be mobilized.

Nevertheless, let’s be clear: France already has the highest rate of compulsory taxes in the Euro zone. **Fiscal margins are limited by international competition** *(that’s Germany)* **and by public acceptance of taxation**. (*That’s the Yellow Vests*) The bulk of the effort must therefore focus on the **efficiency** of public spending, without calling into question the goals of **solidarity** that underpin our social model *(aka make everything works with less)*. It is not so much the level of collective protection that is at issue as our ability to ensure its **sustainable** financing.

Time has become an economic variable in its own right. **Postponing adjustments will not make them any less painful—only more abrupt. Market confidence is rarely lost gradually, and France finds itself in a risky situation**. It still has the freedom to choose its own timeline and priorities. It is precisely this freedom that must be preserved.

Dont blame politicians when its the voters going “fuck you, pay me” and ending the career of anyone brave enough to suggest reform.