Interesting article where a regional ANC leader argues that the ANC deserves a majority in Johannesburg. The title is shocking and meme worthy, but the way he justifies it can teach you a lot about local politics in Johannesburg today even if you reject his arguments.
The article is interesting to read because it gives you a glimpse into how the ANC campaigns and what it runs on.
Many people overseas have been told by expats that the ANC goes in and says "Mandela Mandela Mandela". They vastly understate the degree to which the ANC runs on the social democratic policies it has implemented while in government, as well as its relationship with trade unions. This article gives a nice view of the kinds of things ANC leaders say often about how they have improved lives, which you seldom hear about from expats and international observers.
The other interesting thing in this article is we get a hint at the campaign the ANC may run and how they will explain the collapse of Johannesburg: blame coalitions.
This is another thing expats and outside observers underplay. Whenever you see some marvel at pictures of a decaying Joburg and ask why "the voters don't just vote the ANC out", you should remember that they did. The ANC lost its majority in 2016 and Joburg was run by the DA for 3 years, before their agreement with the EFF collapsed, the regional party splintered and the DA's mayor in Joburg formed a moderately successful breakaway party, ActionSA. Following this, there was a period of chaotic DA coalitions that fell apart every few months, before several years where the ANC and EFF formed stable coalitions on the basis of choosing possibly the least qualified people to serve as mayor.
In the article, he remarks that the ANC apparently left Johannesburg with a surplus when they lost their majority in 2016. He doesn't talk about the years in which they were a part of a destructive coalition that seriously damaged the city, let alone about the disastrous effects of provincial and national ANC government failures. He is obviously not telling the full story of the culpability of the ANC in Johannesburg's present sorry state, but it is still politically interesting to look at the possible messaging they may try to campaign on: we can deliver when we have a clear majority, not when you force us to work with crazy people in coalitions.
As a general note, the vibes are bad for the ANC in Johannesburg. Maybe it is just the media I consume, but the feeling is that Helen Zille is the clear frontrunner and the DA will emerge as the largest party in local government. But whether it is the DA or ANC who finish first, none of that matters without a stable and sane governing partner. Unfortunately, the Joburg ANC is one of the most DA-skeptical caucus in the party.
The DA has a good shot at emerging as the largest party in Johannesburg. In neighbouring Pretoria, they have governed for 8 or so of the last 10 years. But the mayor's office is currently occupied by a member of the DA breakaway party, ActionSA, backed by the ANC.
The most likely outcome for Johannesburg is that the DA emerges as the largest party, but we continue to have coalitions of chaos for the next five years.
Posted by Top_Lime1820