Submission Statement: If true, it appears the U.S. has to some level been able to force open the strait, with up to 50% of pre-war oil flows being reestablished. If this continues, this does have a pretty significant effect on the direction of the war with Iran, putting the U.S., and the world as a whole, in a much stronger position.
sd140220 on
I can’t wait to hear why this is terrible. Great work by our armed forces helping ensure freedom of navigation.
djm07231 on
I think NYT also reported on this so the information seems relatively reliable.
With this along with existing bypass pipelines and land routes, it might be enough to prevent the oil market from blowing up.
There is a blockade ongoing as well so the IRGC’s leverage might be shrinking.
Ok, well, good on the US Navy for this. They’re adapting to their civilian leaderships idiotic strategy. However I get the feeling it’s not sustainable.
Iran still has time on their hands, and without a ground invasion, the drone and cruise missile attacks will continue. Only takes one hit for things to go from “being a nuisance” to a US Navy ship dead in the water.
Otherwise_Young52201 on
The problem with US claims like these is that if we go by reporting from actual commodity experts such as Javier Blas and Rory Johnston, they aren’t actually seeing this much in dark flows.
And as Rory Johnston notes in the Twitter thread, it shouldn’t be difficult to provide authentication of the claim of 10 mbpd while not jeopardizing military operations, especially as data publicly available. like from Kpler, can already track dark flows.
[Article from Javier Blas also saying that while dark flows exist, they aren’t anywhere near 10 million barrels. He tries to make up for the remaining 5 mbpd in what is, in my opinion, an unconvincing argument.](https://archive.ph/I7wQd)
5 Comments
Submission Statement: If true, it appears the U.S. has to some level been able to force open the strait, with up to 50% of pre-war oil flows being reestablished. If this continues, this does have a pretty significant effect on the direction of the war with Iran, putting the U.S., and the world as a whole, in a much stronger position.
I can’t wait to hear why this is terrible. Great work by our armed forces helping ensure freedom of navigation.
I think NYT also reported on this so the information seems relatively reliable.
With this along with existing bypass pipelines and land routes, it might be enough to prevent the oil market from blowing up.
There is a blockade ongoing as well so the IRGC’s leverage might be shrinking.
Edit:
Link to NYT article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/19/business/iran-hormuz-oman-us-navy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
I read the article.
Ok, well, good on the US Navy for this. They’re adapting to their civilian leaderships idiotic strategy. However I get the feeling it’s not sustainable.
Iran still has time on their hands, and without a ground invasion, the drone and cruise missile attacks will continue. Only takes one hit for things to go from “being a nuisance” to a US Navy ship dead in the water.
The problem with US claims like these is that if we go by reporting from actual commodity experts such as Javier Blas and Rory Johnston, they aren’t actually seeing this much in dark flows.
[Rory Johnston thinks the August average has been 5 mbpd rather than 10 mpbd](https://xcancel.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2090192021994770901#m)
And as Rory Johnston notes in the Twitter thread, it shouldn’t be difficult to provide authentication of the claim of 10 mbpd while not jeopardizing military operations, especially as data publicly available. like from Kpler, can already track dark flows.
[Article from Javier Blas also saying that while dark flows exist, they aren’t anywhere near 10 million barrels. He tries to make up for the remaining 5 mbpd in what is, in my opinion, an unconvincing argument.](https://archive.ph/I7wQd)