American power in Europe is changing. The US still has about 70,000 troops on the continent, 70% of the European cloud market, and a lead in AI and chips, but Europeans are shoring up their defense spending and industrial policy to cut their exposure to US political instability. It is possible that the transatlantic relationship "normalizes," with policy determined by overlapping interests rather than abnormal trust and dependence.
Posted by AmericanStatecraft
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I mean, it feels a lot like the Trump administration has set Europe on the path to essentially ensuring they aren’t reliant.
I don’t see this happening tomorrow, next week, next month or even next year.
But these governments made decisions about production and procurement often a decade in advance. We’re already seeing this with a number of defence items, trade agreements etc.
The (failing) Iran war also has showed how far the support has fallen, how unwilling Europe was to get involved in an American war that really, wasn’t in their interest. After the current administration basically said “Ukraine is your problem”, that is being reciprocated.
This is going to go further and further. Europe absolutely still has some reliance but it’s ever-diminishing and it’s hard not to wonder just how different things will be in the 2030’s.
I know the current admin won’t be around forever, but the support base has been established for that blend of politics.
The way they have handled Canada, Greenland, now being willing to mess with the Falklands, it’s just self-own after self-own for American soft power.
Even if there is a more moderate leadership in the US, the Europeans and much of the world are unlikely to trust for quite some time.