Madagascar marks one year since uprising as Russia’s influence grows

Relevance to the sub: growing influence of Russia in Africa, review of one of the successful "Gen Z protests" of the 2020s

One year ago, the Malagasy youth rose up in anger against power cuts, poverty, economic mismanagement and corruption attributed to President Andry Rajoelina, launching largely decentralized protests organized on Discord and Telegram, mimicking similar uprisings in Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand or Indonesia to demand the resignation of the ruling elites.

The protests turned deadly when security forces opened fire on the crowds, and Madagascar spiralled into severe unrest until the elite combat unit CAPSAT led by Colonel Michaël Randrianirina carried out a coup d'etat on October 12 against the government, dissolving the main institutions and suspending the Constitution as President Rajoelina was exfiltrated by the French Armed Forces to the United Arab Emirates to avoid a public lynching.

Initially responsive to the protesters' demands, Col. Randrianirina has since locked down power around himself, transitioning to civilian clothes after a year of "political transition" that will on paper end with presidential elections in October 2027.

On the domestic level, little has changed since the coup – the protesters who led the revolution have largely been relegated to a consulting position, and some of them were even arrested for dissenting against the new authorities. The root causes of the anger, access to electricity, water and education remain largely unaddressed.

The most striking shift has occurred on the geopolitical level: considered an ally of the Western bloc since the fall of the Marxist-Leninist dictatorship after the end of the Cold War, Madagascar had built strong relationships with the United States, France, the United Kingdom but also China and India for military and economic cooperation.

But since Randrianirina's 2025 coup, Madagascar has operated a swift rapprochement with Moscow: according to the OSINT organization All Eyes on Wagner, the GRU has established strong ties with the new Malagasy authorities and flew military personnel of the paramilitary Africa Corps into the country for mutual training. Russia was also reported to have delivered shipments of military equipment – drones, helicopters or vehicles presented as "donations".

A growing relationship between Madagascar and Russia would be mutually beneficial: a cash-stripped Madagascar would benefit from injections of Russian money and Randrianirina's regime from additional security guarantees to cement his reign, while Russia would benefit from access to ports on strategic shipping routes across the Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel – and possibly the recruitment of Malagasy people to aid its war effort against Ukraine.