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Y Combinator co-founder Paul Graham said startup founders often struggle to recognize whether they are succeeding or failing because first-time entrepreneurs lack a clear benchmark for performance.
Graham Says Growth Is Key To Startup Success
On Saturday, Graham explained in a series of posts on X that founders can misjudge their performance in both directions, either overlooking serious mistakes or failing to recognize strong results.
“It’s very common for founders not to know how well they’re doing,” Graham wrote.
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He added, “It’s obviously common for founders to be making mistakes and not realize it. But it’s also surprisingly common for them to be doing great and not realize it.”
It’s very common for founders not to know how well they’re doing. In both directions. It’s obviously common for founders to be making mistakes and not realize it. But it’s also surprisingly common for them to be doing great and not realize it.
— Paul Graham (@paulg) August 22, 2026
He attributed the uncertainty partly to the unusual nature of startup work.
“I think the reason is that running a startup is so unlike other kinds of work,” Graham wrote.
He added, “By your third startup, you’d know if you were doing great. But with the first one you don’t have anything to compare it to.”
I think the reason is that running a startup is so unlike other kinds of work. By your third startup, you’d know if you were doing great. But with the first one you don’t have anything to compare it to.
— Paul Graham (@paulg) August 22, 2026
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Graham then shared what he called his “secret” for evaluating startup performance.
“Want to know my secret for telling how well a startup is doing? What’s their growth rate?” he wrote.
He continued, “That’s the high bit, and in base 10.”
He further said, “If their growth rate is good, unless it’s good from giving away money, everything else must be good enough.”
Want to know my secret for telling how well a startup is doing? What’s their growth rate? That’s the high bit, and in base 10. If their growth rate is good, unless it’s good from giving away money, everything else must be good enough.
— Paul Graham (@paulg) August 22, 2026
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Billionaire Advice For Aspiring Entrepreneurs
Earlier, Investor Kevin O’Leary emphasized customer demand, revenue and disciplined execution, urging entrepreneurs to focus on sales and their three most important daily tasks rather than getting distracted by ideas.
Amazon.com, Inc. founder Jeff Bezos advised aspiring founders to gain experience at successful companies before starting a business, arguing that learning skills such as hiring and management can increase the odds of success.
He said immediately launching a startup after college was the exception, not the rule.
Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban said entrepreneurs with little money should rely on “sweat equity” by offering valuable services based on their skills.
He also urged young people to embrace AI, saying someone with zero dollars and a laptop could use free AI tools to build skills and help small businesses improve profitability.
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