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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) CEO Elon Musk has clashed with a NASA safety adviser over how many rocket launches Starship will need to reach the Moon, as the agency presses ahead with plans to land astronauts in 2028.
Former astronaut Charlie Precourt, a member of NASA’s independent Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, raised concerns about the number of refueling flights during a meeting on Oct. 22.
“I think the last estimate is around 22 flights,” Precourt said.
Musk disagreed.
“That’s way too high. Actual number will be more like 6 to 8,” he wrote on X.
But why does getting to the Moon require so many rockets?
A Gas Station in Space
When Apollo 11 reached the Moon in 1969, a small landing craft separated from the main spacecraft, descended to the surface and allowed astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to climb down a ladder.
Musk has a rather grander plan.
SpaceX wants to land an entire Starship on the Moon, a spacecraft roughly 15 stories tall, then lower astronauts to the surface in an elevator.
But getting something that enormous to the Moon requires considerable fuel. Starship burns most of its propellant reaching Earth orbit, leaving it needing to refuel before continuing its journey.
SpaceX plans to place a fuel depot in orbit and send tanker Starships to replenish it with liquid oxygen and methane.
The number of launches depends on how much propellant each tanker can deliver and how much is lost during storage and transfer.
NASA’s Surprising Response
NASA’s own Artemis program manager Jeremy Parsons partly sided with Musk the following day.
“We were definitely not tracking as high as 22,” Parsons said during an Oct. 23 briefing, adding that six to eight was closer to SpaceX’s plans.
But NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman described that lower figure as Starship’s “ultimate potential end state.”
SpaceX has yet to demonstrate refueling between two Starships in orbit. President Gwynne Shotwell said the company aims to attempt it in early 2027.
Musk also faces competition from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, which plans to reach the Moon using four rocket launches, lander included, without refueling spacecraft in orbit.
NASA has opened the first 2028 Moon landing opportunity to both companies and says it will choose whichever is ready first.
On Kalshi, traders give NASA 30% odds of landing astronauts on the Moon by the end of 2028, rising to 42% by the end of 2029.
For SpaceX investors and enthusiasts, the planned 2027 refueling demonstration could provide the first hard evidence of whether Musk’s six-to-eight-launch estimate is realistic.