The price response also depends on available supply, seller willingness, leverage, and whether long-term holders release coins into liquid markets; market capitalization alone cannot measure cash needed to materially lift prices.
Bitcoin’s next halving is estimated for 2028, when the block reward falls from 3.125 $BTC to 1.5625 $BTC. The protocol caps supply at 21 million coins. Slower issuance could tighten inventory if demand grows, but a halving does not guarantee a rally.
ETFs and Treasury Buyers Must Keep Expanding
The SEC approved US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products in January 2024, opening a regulated route to Bitcoin exposure. BlackRock’s IBIT held $60.7 billion in net assets on November 6, although AUM also moves with Bitcoin’s price.
A path to seven figures would require sustained ETF demand, wider allocations from pension funds and advisers, and companies retaining Bitcoin through downturns. Strategy’s ledger showed 850,364 $BTC on November 9. More companies would need to adopt similar policies without relying on fragile financing or selling during market stress, with diversified funding and longer holding periods.
There may be another source of buying from sovereign demand. In 2025, the U.S. created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that includes government-issued $BTC seized through forfeiture. The order doesn’t restrict open-market purchases of Bitcoin, but it does permit budget-neutral methods of acquiring more of the cryptocurrency. A stronger price effect would require other governments to establish reserves and hold $BTC long-term.
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Armstrong and $ARK Put Different Numbers on the Upside
Armstrong told in a Cheeky Pint podcast in August 2025 that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, citing regulatory clarity, sovereign interest, and institutional money awaiting clearer rules. He acknowledged high uncertainty around the target.
$ARK’s April 2025 model set 2030 bear, base, and bull cases at approximately $300,000, $710,000, and $1.5 million. Its bull case relies heavily on institutional investment, mainly through ETFs, alongside Bitcoin’s store-of-value role and emerging-market demand. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s newer $1.6 million target applies to 2036, not 2030, and assumes wider institutional allocations. These are conditional models, not guaranteed outcomes.
Liquidity and Regulation Could Break the Bull Case
The upside by 2030 would require those demand channels to keep growing while clear custody rules and predictable regulation preserve access consistently, rather than through short speculative bursts. Lower real yields and expanding global liquidity could make investors more willing to hold a non-yielding asset.
The bearish path is different. Persistent inflation, high rates, a stronger dollar, or prolonged risk aversion could divert capital into bonds, cash, and equities. ETF redemptions would dampen demand, and companies under funding pressure would offload their holdings.
There may be certain limitations on access due to regulatory reversals, restrictive custody rules, or tax changes. Bitcoin is neither a competitor to gold as a store of value, nor is it a source of income like interest-bearing treasuries.
$ARK’s $300,000 bear case falls far short of $1 million. A deeper demand shock could produce an even weaker result. Reaching the target by 2030 requires adoption, liquidity, and policy to move together at an exceptional pace.
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Related: BlackRock Shifts $482M in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime