Future generations are going to be more conservative. Prepare yourselves.
Aggressive1999 on
There were discussions that next EC cycle (6 years until next 2030 census) in 538 sub that even Democrats won all of blue wall states, that will put Democrats around 250-260 ish EC.
I expect this trend to continue unless blue states figured out about housing and economic affordability.
That above paragraph, however, it can’t refuse anymore that Sunbelts states is Democrats future now.
IvanGarMo on
1: Old homeowners stop all development
2: High housing costs give us populism
3: Trump nukes a hurricane severely irradiating Florida
Truly, the butterfly effect
Master_Assistant_898 on
to look at Democrats and think “these things are the problems” is one thing but to look at Republicans and think “these are the solutions” is another. America is about to get even dumber.
ale_93113 on
This to me seems like the exact same argument as the “demographics is destiny for a perpetually blue america”, but red colored this time
the FPTP system guarantees that there will be competitive elections between two parties, and if one of the two gets an edge over the other, then that edge is short lived
Creative_Hope_4690 on
Political changes are hard to predict. Recall in 2000 the default narrative was FL was going to be a solid blue state given that it was 70% white and in 2020 the white share would be in ~50%. This prediction was correct that the white share went down from the 70% level.
Ok_Barracuda_1161 on
The migration from solid-D to tossup or lean-R states is a positive for the dems, seems weird to spin it the other way.
Florida has been steadily trending right, but TX has been shifting left besides this election, and GA, NC, and AZ are all consistently shifting left.
If the trend continues and GA/NC match the popular vote or even are to the left of the popular vote, that’s well worth trading a handful of electoral votes from solid-D states.
7 Comments
Future generations are going to be more conservative. Prepare yourselves.
There were discussions that next EC cycle (6 years until next 2030 census) in 538 sub that even Democrats won all of blue wall states, that will put Democrats around 250-260 ish EC.
I expect this trend to continue unless blue states figured out about housing and economic affordability.
That above paragraph, however, it can’t refuse anymore that Sunbelts states is Democrats future now.
1: Old homeowners stop all development
2: High housing costs give us populism
3: Trump nukes a hurricane severely irradiating Florida
Truly, the butterfly effect
to look at Democrats and think “these things are the problems” is one thing but to look at Republicans and think “these are the solutions” is another. America is about to get even dumber.
This to me seems like the exact same argument as the “demographics is destiny for a perpetually blue america”, but red colored this time
the FPTP system guarantees that there will be competitive elections between two parties, and if one of the two gets an edge over the other, then that edge is short lived
Political changes are hard to predict. Recall in 2000 the default narrative was FL was going to be a solid blue state given that it was 70% white and in 2020 the white share would be in ~50%. This prediction was correct that the white share went down from the 70% level.
The migration from solid-D to tossup or lean-R states is a positive for the dems, seems weird to spin it the other way.
Florida has been steadily trending right, but TX has been shifting left besides this election, and GA, NC, and AZ are all consistently shifting left.
If the trend continues and GA/NC match the popular vote or even are to the left of the popular vote, that’s well worth trading a handful of electoral votes from solid-D states.