Preparing for the Possibility of a Draft Without Panic – War on the Rocks

Summary:

>Right now, U.S. mobilization has not been tested in decades. As a result, current ideas about how it would function are woefully out of date. Being prepared to execute a draft requires buy-in from across all branches of government — and society writ large.
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>At a minimum, the executive branch and Congress should actively pursue a more proactive approach. The National Security Council should take the lead on mobilization exercises. Congress should also get out ahead on expanding Selective Service System registration to all Americans between the ages of 18–25, thereby preventing future legal challenges to the current all-male registration system when time may be of the essence. Policymakers should also consider the skills that would be required in a future conflict and how the nation would sustain its economy while maintaining the human capital required in large-scale combat operations. Finally, the professional all-volunteer force should consider and train for a possibility in which they would have to absorb conscript forces into their ranks.

**Changing Times**

>The world has watched as [Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-lawmakers-vote-raise-conscription-age-limit-30-2023-07-25/) and [Ukraine](https://time.com/6965892/ukraine-military-mobilization-conscription-law/) wrestle to align operational requirements with social and political considerations. In August 2016, [Norway](https://warontherocks.com/2016/06/norways-gender-neutral-draft/) implemented a universal conscription model — including, for the first time, a requirement for women. [Sweden](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/15/sweden-nato-military-conscription-model-defense/) — which introduced an all-volunteer model in 2010 — reauthorized conscription in 2017. [Lithuania](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31607930) reintroduced conscription in 2015 after removing it in 2008 and [Latvia](https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/05/the-first-year-of-conscription-in-latvia/) reintroduced conscription in January 2024 after removing it in 2006. [France](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-05/ukraine-conscription-military-service-panic-isn-t-what-europe-needs?embedded-checkout=true), which ended conscription in 1996, and [Germany](https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-conscription-boris-pistorius-military-service-ukraine-war-bundeswehr/), which ended conscription in 2011, have recently begun political debates about the potential for future conscription. In a historic and controversial move, the Israeli government passed a law to [conscript ultra-Orthodox men](https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-historic-move-idf-said-to-issue-1000-draft-orders-to-ultra-orthodox-men/) for the first time in history. The widespread resurgence of conscription across the globe has started to raise the question among Americans: Could a draft ever happen again in the United States? What would that look like?
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>A recent proposal to [automate](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2024/05/23/lawmakers-move-to-automate-selective-service-registration-for-all-men/) Selective Service System registration for men on their 18th birthdays coupled with debate that the current all-male registration should be [expanded](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4730560-senate-democrats-require-women-draft/) to include all Americans has generated [public rumors](https://thedispatch.com/article/mandatory-registration-for-the-draft-isnt-new-contrary-to-social-media-posts/) that the nation is on a wartime footing. These concerns are unfounded, but Americans’ confusion and anxiety over the use of the draft is understandable. The nation’s last experience with the draft — the Vietnam War — was atypical and continues to generate controversial questions. Was the threat existential to America’s existence, requiring the level of conflict necessary to use a draft? Was the draft implemented equitably across race and social class? For many, the answer to both questions was “no.” Any use of a draft in a future conflict will require addressing the errors of Vietnam.
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>For several reasons, the United States actively [decided](https://www.nixonfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/The-Report-Of-The-Presidents-Commission-On-An-All-Volunteer-Armed-Force.pdf) to move from a mixed force of conscripts (draftees) and professional service members to the all-volunteer force in 1973. The all-volunteer force provides a smaller but [more professionalized](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3316678/all-volunteer-force-proves-successful-for-us-military/) force than its predecessor, increasing the standards of those who serve across [metrics](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9195.html) including mental aptitude, physical strength, training, and unit cohesion.
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>Yet just because the United States transitioned to volunteers does not mean that the nation would never need to call upon a draft in the future. The United States may still need to mobilize forces in a conflict that poses an existential threat to the nation’s existence. [Existing analysis](https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan) indicates that the opening salvos of a conflict over Taiwan would generate U.S. casualty rates not seen since the two World Wars. In considering the possibility of a draft in support of a future Taiwan scenario, it is worth examining the history of the draft in the United States and the circumstances under which a draft was considered and enacted.