Now, on the eve of the 30th anniversary of Quebec’s second independence referendum — the first one was in 1980 — it seems the tide could be turning again [towards separatism]. Legault is deeply unpopular after six years in power, and the Parti Quebecois, with a young, charismatic leader, has been ahead in the polls for more than a year.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the party, which is promising to hold a third referendum by 2030, can breathe new life into the province’s aging independence movement.
[…]
Emile Simard, leader of the PQ’s youth wing, believes the party’s popularity will renew the appetite for independence in Quebec. He grew up in a sovereigntist family in the Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean region, and took out his membership card when he turned 16.
Now 22, he says the reasons for independence have changed somewhat since the 1995 referendum, when the “No” campaign eked out a win. He pointed to climate change in particular.
[…]
But surveys suggest the PQ’s ascendancy has not yet boosted support for independence, which has hovered around 35 per cent for years.
“One of the major weaknesses of the independence movement in Quebec is the fact that it’s not resonating in the younger generation,” said David Heurtel, political analyst and former Quebec Liberal minister.
“Independence in Quebec, back in the ‘60s, ‘70s, the ‘80s, even in ‘95, it was the hip, younger generation thing,” he said. “You’re not seeing that today.”
[…]
Simard said a referendum campaign would force young people to think more deeply about the question. “To me, it’s obvious that we should give ourselves the opportunity to decide on this issue,” he said.
Though young Quebecers aren’t especially sovereigntist, they’re also not particularly federalist, said Charles Breton, executive director of the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
“They just don’t know, and part of it is because that’s not a question that we’ve been talking about,” he said.
[…]
The prospect of a federal Conservative government looms large over any conversation about Quebec independence. Heurtel said a change in Ottawa could hurt the PQ’s prospects, since Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre favours a more hands-off approach to the provinces.
“Poilievre is not going to be the same type of nemesis for nationalists and sovereigntists to exploit, whereas (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau is a much better target,” he said.
But Simard said a Conservative government in Ottawa coupled with a Trump administration south of the border could drive home the idea that Quebec is better off alone.
“Is this the kind of Canada that interests us, a Canada where values like the environment are set aside?” he said.
Breton said it’s hard to imagine Poilievre, who remains unpopular in Quebec, as the point man for unity during a third referendum campaign. Trudeau is better suited to that job, he said.
!ping Can
creepforever on
People in Quebec are sick of Legault and the Quebec Liberal’s don’t have the leadership to serve as an effective opposition. That leaves the PQ, which is where Quebecois can park their votes when they don’t like either remaining option.
When Trudeau is out of office a lot of federal talent is going to go back down to the provincial level and help rebuild regional parties. Both Ontario and Quebec are in desperate need of this.
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Now, on the eve of the 30th anniversary of Quebec’s second independence referendum — the first one was in 1980 — it seems the tide could be turning again [towards separatism]. Legault is deeply unpopular after six years in power, and the Parti Quebecois, with a young, charismatic leader, has been ahead in the polls for more than a year.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the party, which is promising to hold a third referendum by 2030, can breathe new life into the province’s aging independence movement.
[…]
Emile Simard, leader of the PQ’s youth wing, believes the party’s popularity will renew the appetite for independence in Quebec. He grew up in a sovereigntist family in the Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean region, and took out his membership card when he turned 16.
Now 22, he says the reasons for independence have changed somewhat since the 1995 referendum, when the “No” campaign eked out a win. He pointed to climate change in particular.
[…]
But surveys suggest the PQ’s ascendancy has not yet boosted support for independence, which has hovered around 35 per cent for years.
“One of the major weaknesses of the independence movement in Quebec is the fact that it’s not resonating in the younger generation,” said David Heurtel, political analyst and former Quebec Liberal minister.
“Independence in Quebec, back in the ‘60s, ‘70s, the ‘80s, even in ‘95, it was the hip, younger generation thing,” he said. “You’re not seeing that today.”
[…]
Simard said a referendum campaign would force young people to think more deeply about the question. “To me, it’s obvious that we should give ourselves the opportunity to decide on this issue,” he said.
Though young Quebecers aren’t especially sovereigntist, they’re also not particularly federalist, said Charles Breton, executive director of the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
“They just don’t know, and part of it is because that’s not a question that we’ve been talking about,” he said.
[…]
The prospect of a federal Conservative government looms large over any conversation about Quebec independence. Heurtel said a change in Ottawa could hurt the PQ’s prospects, since Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre favours a more hands-off approach to the provinces.
“Poilievre is not going to be the same type of nemesis for nationalists and sovereigntists to exploit, whereas (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau is a much better target,” he said.
But Simard said a Conservative government in Ottawa coupled with a Trump administration south of the border could drive home the idea that Quebec is better off alone.
“Is this the kind of Canada that interests us, a Canada where values like the environment are set aside?” he said.
Breton said it’s hard to imagine Poilievre, who remains unpopular in Quebec, as the point man for unity during a third referendum campaign. Trudeau is better suited to that job, he said.
!ping Can
People in Quebec are sick of Legault and the Quebec Liberal’s don’t have the leadership to serve as an effective opposition. That leaves the PQ, which is where Quebecois can park their votes when they don’t like either remaining option.
When Trudeau is out of office a lot of federal talent is going to go back down to the provincial level and help rebuild regional parties. Both Ontario and Quebec are in desperate need of this.