CMV: Trump will likely achieve his goals. To the near-term benefit of the US, and much to the long-term detriment to the US and the World.

I know this is a long post but I respect the views and input of this sub so I am eager to hear your thoughts on all this…

I know a number of politicos, prognosticators, and trump critics are predicting that trump will fall flat on his ass and his economic and foreign policy moves will blow up in his face. If you are one of those people I encourage you to prepare yourself for the very high likelihood that he does not fail, and is in fact quite successful with his moves. However, like most things trump does, these immediate successes will come at a severe long-term cost that he will not have to deal with, and therefore does not care.

(if you want some real doomerism; read the last one)

Tariffs and Economic Pressure:

Assumption: trump’s move to slap tariffs on anything imported, from friend or foe alike, will quickly raise costs on American consumers, increase inflation, and blow up in his face. The tariffed country will respond in kind, hurting American companies and further damaging trump’s domestic standing.

Likelihood: The fact is the US economy if FAR too big, too influential, and too lucrative for the aggrieved nations, especially democracies, to withstand their products being 100% more expensive on the US market. More importantly; trump knows whatever demands he is making of those nations, while painful, pales in comparison to the pain inflicted by the tariffs. They almost assuredly will play ball and he will declare victory. Yes, there will be pain on the US consumer; but trump he has a compliant media and echo chamber, and any accountability is still two years away, at best. And because it’s a David and Goliath situation; the pain to the US consumer will be modest compared to what the other country faces.

Long-term Implications: In exchange for this momentary win will be a breakdown in global free trade and all countries rethinking their economic dependency on the United States. Global trade, while absolutely harming the American worker, is what has raised billions out of poverty around the world; which had helped increase global stability and wellbeing; that will backtrack. As for dependency on the US, it will still be the most lucrative market to enter; so, it can still bully cooperation; but the smooth and efficient flow between economics will decrease considerably; costing all parties billions. You can also bet that US Dollar status as the global reserve currency will be toast; which is related to:

Tax Cuts

Assumption: trump’s move to cut taxes and reduce spending will exacerbate inflation, explode the deficit, and anger working class Americans as the programs they rely on are decimated to give billionaires another tax cut they don’t need.

Likelihood: When has the working class EVER gotten angry about the deficit or tax cuts. On the contrary; expect viral clips and social media to blow up with people celebrating the extra $1200 they receive, which trump will absolutely frontload in the form of a check with his signature on it; ignoring that the $1200 was in exchange for a ten billion dollar cut for musk, Bezos, etc; and a massive increase in the already dangerous US debt.  As for devastating the social safety net; that’s someone else’s problem (until its not, see below).

Long-term Implications: Eventually the chickens will come home to roost on the US debt. This is unsustainable and will gradually result in a lower credit ratings, higher interest rates, reduced public investment, and real damage to the US economy; but it won’t happen on trump’s watch so who cares. Of course, not all of his tax cut will be paid for with debt; there will be cuts to ‘wasteful’ programs, especially social supports. I expect any cuts to Social Security will not be borne by current or near-term retirees; but future ones. I’ll point out that no generation since the Boomers has had the economic ease that they enjoyed; AND those generations are all expected to live considerably longer. Social Security is the already the largest source of income for most beneficiaries; and that’s for Baby Boomers who have had the easiest economic path in US history. The damage from these cuts will be brutal; but not for another 15+ years, so again, trump does not care. Lastly, with cuts to federal support; expect local governments to have to eventually layoff teachers, police, firefighters, etc; but because math will be involved; trump’s media echo chambers will blame those decisions on local politicians (and expect the pain to be strategically focused on blue states/cities).

Interest rates

Assumption: trump’s profligate ways and inflationary moves will cause interest rates to rise; further angering US consumers.

Likelihood: This is POSSIBLY the only item where the assumption may indeed match reality; but that assumes the Bond Market and the Fed do not fall victim to trump’s pressure campaign or he gets to take them over outright. Admittedly; there is a theory out there that high interest rates are, in part, causing some inflation so arbitrarily lowering them could maybe help inflation; but that would likely be cancelled out by an overheated economy. Either way; trump gets what he wants; interest rates are lowered; and combined with his tax cut he declares economic victory as economic growth and consumer spending rise slightly from what they were under Biden (the proverbial ‘worst economy ever’).

Long-term Implications: See “2021-2024” – lowering rates when you should be raising them; cutting taxes when you should be raising revenues (to pay off debt); spending money when you should be saving it (to pay off debt); are all incredibly inflationary. They also risk overheating the economy which can and always has caused a recession; but as long as that recession doesn’t not happen during his term (especially during the first half of it) who cares?

Fossil Fuels and Climate Change

This is an easy one so I won’t belabor the point. trump will seek to halt ‘expensive in the short term, worth it in the long term’ green investments in exchange for an explosion in fossil fuel extraction and use. Friends in Russia and Saudi Arabia will assist in this pursuit. He gets a big benefit from cheap oil and gas prices; to the continued detriment to the climate and planet; the impacts of which are felt long after he leaves.

Foreign Policy: Rule of Law vs. Law of the Jungle

Assumption: Americans won’t stand for a retreat from the world and a breakdown in the global order. The chaos that unfolds will make trump unpopular at home. Just as important; nations will band together and stand up to the US, causing trump to back down.

Likelihood: Almost no election has been decided on foreign policy. Yes, Americans care about foreign policy; but only when its staring at the right in the face (Pearl Harbor, 9/11). Even more complicating; the neolib and neocon view of the world; that America must stay engaged and intervene when necessary to maintain the post-WWII order, has lost the plot for WHY such engagement is so necessary. It has become a globalist scheme to benefit the rest of the world at the US’s expense; when in fact it was originally a recognition that a relatively stable world in which might does NOT equal right and the US/UN/NATO serves as guarantor of security makes the pursuit of nuclear weapons unnecessary for most countries. If I told you in 1950 that, in addition to the US and Russia, only seven additional countries would join the ranks of nuclear-weapon states you would think I was crazy. And as dangerous as THAT situation is; its far better for all of us that the global order has managed to keep a lid on the boiling pot.  As for standing up to the United States; its not jingoistic to recognize that’s basically a death wish to ANY country, even supposed ‘military rivals’. The only real deterrent, the great equalizer, that prevents any bullying country (and it pains me to add the United States to that list) from attacking one’s country is the basis of our long-term implications.

Long-term Implications: Not to get too childish; but in DC Comics; Batman has developed a ‘Contingency Plan’ if the otherwise immortal and undefeatable Superman ever went rouge and became a threat to the world. In the real world; those are called nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. The last eighty years were defined by a global order (or, even scarier and conspiratorial, a ‘new world order’) that tried to give smaller and less powerful nations a voice; and had a powerful brutal referee in the middle (the United States) that attempted to keep things from spiraling out of control. The last time humanity lived under a different arrangement, the ‘law of the jungle,’ was pre-WWII. Not only did that end badly for all of us; nuclear weapons only appeared at the very end, and they were extremely weak and in extreme short supply compared to today. We have not yet experienced what a ‘might makes right’ world looks like with WMDs in play. Expect an explosion in nations pursuing nuclear weapons; and in era were state actors and leaders are growing increasingly irrational and unstable; we will find ourselves in ‘a room awash with gasoline; with tens of thousands of matches being held by dozens or more irrational enemies. I don’t need to go further.