> We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000.
> Our analysis suggests that after accounting for the recent unanticipated population surge, the growth in employment of both U.S.-born people and foreign-born people in the United States surpassed published estimates. Whereas published numbers suggest a decline in U.S.-born employment over the course of 2023, our estimates suggest that U.S.-born employment increased by 740,000.
> Important work from @WendyEdelberg and @taraelizwatson. Rather than increasing by 1 million between Jan 2023 & 2024, they estimate that household employment in the CPS rose by 2.5 million instead once population estimates are corrected to incorporate recent immigration trends.
> Their estimate closes virtually all of the gap between the household & establishment surveys.
A crucial insight they make is that even with a higher foreign-born share, their higher population growth implies there was 930K more employment growth among U.S.-born workers over 2023
!ping ECON&IMMIGRATION
And another reason to make sure that we don’t break the strength of labor market.
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> We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000.
> Our analysis suggests that after accounting for the recent unanticipated population surge, the growth in employment of both U.S.-born people and foreign-born people in the United States surpassed published estimates. Whereas published numbers suggest a decline in U.S.-born employment over the course of 2023, our estimates suggest that U.S.-born employment increased by 740,000.
https://x.com/ernietedeschi/status/1823362067614875821?s=46&t=iLFma8Yk5mfc419ku-UK-g
> Important work from @WendyEdelberg and @taraelizwatson. Rather than increasing by 1 million between Jan 2023 & 2024, they estimate that household employment in the CPS rose by 2.5 million instead once population estimates are corrected to incorporate recent immigration trends.
> Their estimate closes virtually all of the gap between the household & establishment surveys.
A crucial insight they make is that even with a higher foreign-born share, their higher population growth implies there was 930K more employment growth among U.S.-born workers over 2023
!ping ECON&IMMIGRATION
And another reason to make sure that we don’t break the strength of labor market.