Exploring Mitch McConnell “what if” moment (his failure to convict trump after J6)

It is a popular sentiment here that if he wanted to McConnell couldve convicted Trump and barred him from future office. I wanted to look into a what if scenario where he aggressively pursued conviction . I am by no means a DC insider if there is something wrong please correct me. Despite Trump’s attempt to end the American experiment by overturning the will of the American people McConnell allowed him to remain a force in republican politics. Saying all he did was not vote for the bill is underselling his complicity in protecting and abiding Trump's escape from justice.  Mitch McConnell did not put the senate in session  since the first order of business would have been the second trail of Trump. It's also worth noting that Mitch McConnell was only senate leader for this vital period because the Georgia senators of Ossoff and Warnock were not sworn in on January 3rd with the rest of the 117th congress but were only sworn in on January 20th.  His refusal to immediately start the senate trial did two things: first it let time pass, as the moment passed political polarization can step in and battle lines can form. As the horrors and shock of the insurrection grow farther political games start to creep in. At the moment a vote to convict might have been justified with their constituents as images and the rare rebukes of trump by conservative media are still fresh but now right wing media, free over whatever ills of trump they had, has poisoned the idea of conviction. The second is that it provides a legal justification for senators to hide behind or to legitimately be concerned with. The legal justification is that Trump is no longer in office and the senate has no jurisdiction over a private citizen. 

In this scenario im giving GOP senators some benefit of the doubt in saying that jurisdiction concerns are legitimate so they impeach him prior to him leaving office so those concern are eased.

New Tally with justifications for senators changing votes 

Our new starting point: 

-55 ,(remember GA has two lame duck senators)

-57 ,This quickly goes back to the original number as McConnell and his protege John Thune change their vote. It's worth noting that among the non-conviction voter these two had the most clear anti trump statements. 

– 63, These senators listed the fact Trump was a private citizen as the main reason why they didn't impeach and were also very critical of him often saying he did do impeachable offenses (1). If McConnell is whipping votes he goes perfect with these senators since they are very sympathetic to his cause and dont need persuading. I put a rating on how likely I think they would vote to impeach if pressed. This is from looking at their statements post j6 and how close they are with senate leadership. 

John Boozman 7/10

Shelly Moore Capito 9/10

John Hoeven 9/10

Jerry Moran 9/10

Rob Portman 10/10

Dan Sullivan 9/10

Now we reach an impasse, we need four more votes and there are tons of avenues towards these votes none of them easy. Avenues can be combined with others to effectively whip votes. I think it should be noted that a lot of these guys probably thought Trump was a political loser at the time and distancing themselves from him, although hurtful to them personally ,was good for the national brand.  They certainly don't want to be on the losing side of this vote. Voting against McConnell here would mean you are gonna be stripped of committee assignments in favor of those who did vote in favor. McConnell is putting his political life on the line for this vote and crossing him would incur his full wrath. With only four votes to go do you really wanna be the last onboard. 

• Path 1 (2 votes) .Pressure the lame ducks.  Kemp and McConnell both put pressure on the now lame ducks senators Leoffler and Perdue  to vote for conviction. Positions in a future Kemp admin can be floated or positions in the RNC. Kemp solidifies his position as the post Trump standard bearer with Trump out of the way. Might be a little risky for Kemp if it leaks he helped but I think the MAGA base will mostly focus on McConnell. As for Perdue and Loeffler they can put out a statement that will earn them infinite praise from the press and any media job they want. “We personally oppose the impeachment/conviction of president Trump, however the people of Georgia have spoken they have picked two senators that have made clear to us they would convict Trump if in office. The people of Georgia elected Osoff and Warnock to be their representatives and in this crucial time we feel, no matter our personal feelings, we should vote as they would so that the people of Georgia can say their current representatives speak for them. “( for the record I don't actually believe they would think that it would be political cover for why they voted that way). 

• Path 2  (8 votes). Appeal to leadership/old friends. McConnell appeals to senate leadership with a mix of sticks and carrots. He has personal relationships with a lot of these people so I think getting them to vote with them on this isnt out of the realm of possibility. For the more craven (Rick Scott) being on the winning side matters more than anything so if he sees that two or three of his colleagues have already decided to convict they would also vote to convict. * signifies they have been in leadership together 9 years or more.

  • Todd Young 7/10 
  • Joni Ernst 6/10 
  • John Barrasso 7/10 * 
  • Mike Lee 6/10 
  • Rick Scott 5/10
  • Roy Blunt 7/10 *
  • Mike Crapo 5/10 (long time whip)
  • Richard Shelby 6/10 (retiring also abstained from vote creating j6 committee) 

• Path 3. The persuadables/profiles in courage. People that are a mix of political opportunists looking to get Trump out of the way, people that can be bribed or manipulated, those who want to be on the winning team, and those who despite bending a licking the boot of trump want to see him gone if it can cost them nothing personally.

  • Thom Tillis 
  • Marco Rubio
  • Tim Scott
  • Jim Inhofe
  • James Lankford
  • Jim Risch (actually had his office trashed by the rioters)
  • Tommy Tuberville
  • Lindsey Graham (the only one on the list who actively supported trump after the insurrection but if conviction was likely he would flip in a heartbeat)

Out of all these paths McConnel would've had to go ¼ which isn't that hard given the circumstances. I was also very conservative in how I tallied votes. I took a lot of senators at their word that they thought charges did not meet the standard to conviction even when they were critical of Trump.  Getting one vote would have made it easier to get another vote and so on. After you get the four votes needed for conviction i think 70-75 votes would've been a possibility. If you have leadership ambitions or want to move up at all in the senate voting against this is career suicide. As for political retaliation this is a man who lost a seat in Alabama during his first term in office. The Mitch machine vs whatever unpaid heritage foundation rejects Trump scraps can find is hardly a battle. Without the RNC machine to back him I doubt MAGA candidates find the same success especially with their figurehead out of the picture. 

Sources 

1- https://www.justsecurity.org/74725/in-their-own-words-the-43-republicans-explanations-of-their-votes-not-to-convict-trump-in-impeachment-trial/ 

2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress#Leadership