* Iran enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, near weapons grade
* That material is enough, if refined further, for six bombs
* Now producing enough for almost one bomb every month
* IAEA says current situation is ‘of serious concern’
!ping Foreign-policy
AniNgAnnoys on
Iran has had the technical ability and resources to pursue a bomb for over a decade. The only explanation for why they do not have one is that they are unwilling to pay the costs to have one. Those costs being, the remaining cost to develop a weapon, which is small, the costs of maintaining the weapons, which is medium, the cost of deploying the weapons, also medium, and finally, the political costs (both domestic and internationally), which are not really publically known, but it is safe to say Iran knows what they would be to a decent degree of certainty.
If Iran if now pursuing a weapon we need to ask ourselves what has changed? Either the costs have come down or the perceived benefits have gone up.
The costs of development, maintenance, and deployment have not changed. The political costs have not likely gone down. From my naive view that leaves only one answer. Iran is perceiving the benefits have gone up.
I can see two perspectives on this. Firstly, by furthering developmemt Iran hopes to get something from someone at the negotiating table and smell an opening. Secondly, Iran perceives a threat to itself that requires a nuclear deterent. I do not think Iran plans to use the weapons offensively, that would just be suicide and irrational. Nuclear blackmail is also unlikely to work for them once they have a bomb, see North Korea.
My gut says it is option 1, but maybe they know something about plans from Isreal or the US that we are not yet publically known. Bibi has had his leash taken off and there were news stories the Iran had an assassination plot against Trump.
I look forward to William Spaniel aka Lines on Maps guy to provide his take on this.
barktreep on
They’ve been edging for a while. We let Israel get away with illegally developing nuclear weapons, so of course every other country in the Middle East wants them too, especially now.
Declan_McManus on
Come on DraftKings, let me bet on the number of new nuclear-armed states by the end of Trump’s term. I’d put the over under at 2.5, and personally I’ll take the over
5 Comments
Archived version: [https://archive.fo/reSOw](https://archive.fo/reSOw).
* Iran enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, near weapons grade
* That material is enough, if refined further, for six bombs
* Now producing enough for almost one bomb every month
* IAEA says current situation is ‘of serious concern’
!ping Foreign-policy
Iran has had the technical ability and resources to pursue a bomb for over a decade. The only explanation for why they do not have one is that they are unwilling to pay the costs to have one. Those costs being, the remaining cost to develop a weapon, which is small, the costs of maintaining the weapons, which is medium, the cost of deploying the weapons, also medium, and finally, the political costs (both domestic and internationally), which are not really publically known, but it is safe to say Iran knows what they would be to a decent degree of certainty.
If Iran if now pursuing a weapon we need to ask ourselves what has changed? Either the costs have come down or the perceived benefits have gone up.
The costs of development, maintenance, and deployment have not changed. The political costs have not likely gone down. From my naive view that leaves only one answer. Iran is perceiving the benefits have gone up.
I can see two perspectives on this. Firstly, by furthering developmemt Iran hopes to get something from someone at the negotiating table and smell an opening. Secondly, Iran perceives a threat to itself that requires a nuclear deterent. I do not think Iran plans to use the weapons offensively, that would just be suicide and irrational. Nuclear blackmail is also unlikely to work for them once they have a bomb, see North Korea.
My gut says it is option 1, but maybe they know something about plans from Isreal or the US that we are not yet publically known. Bibi has had his leash taken off and there were news stories the Iran had an assassination plot against Trump.
I look forward to William Spaniel aka Lines on Maps guy to provide his take on this.
They’ve been edging for a while. We let Israel get away with illegally developing nuclear weapons, so of course every other country in the Middle East wants them too, especially now.
Come on DraftKings, let me bet on the number of new nuclear-armed states by the end of Trump’s term. I’d put the over under at 2.5, and personally I’ll take the over
The wrong kind of stocks that are going up.